2192 as of 26 April. Up 62 in a week. One more week like that, and we´re in the second highest bin. 4 weeks to go. 201 per week for highest bin. This is definitely 99.x% safe.
https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard
0.226466
Relative Brier Score
51
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 25 | 124 | 1381 | 439 | 1632 |
| Comments | 0 | 5 | 99 | 21 | 143 |
| Questions Forecasted | 25 | 26 | 84 | 33 | 110 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 4 | 34 | 380 | 96 | 525 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
100%
(0%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
6%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
If there should be an election, it will be far from "nationwide".
Files
375 as of 26 April. Up 5 in a week. 4 weeks to go. 31 per week for next bin. This is definitely 99.x% safe.
https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard