20th
Accuracy Rank

PeterStamp

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My name is Peter Stamp. I´m a 1971 born german financial advisor and insurance broker.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 10:38AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 82% 82%
No 18% 18%

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Forecast Count:
 43 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 10:38AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
2023 Q2 0% 0%
2023 Q3 0% 0%
2023 Q4 0% 0%
2024 Q1 0% 1%
2024 Q2 0% 1%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
 17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 10:44AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 49 93% 94%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive 7% 6%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive 0% 0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive 0% 0%
More than or equal to 200 0% 0%

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
 45 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 10:45AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 37 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 10:47AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 3% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 10% 11%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 30 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 10:49AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 1% 2%
Oman 1% 2%
Qatar 1% 2%
Saudi Arabia 5% 5%
Tunisia 1% 1%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
 18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 10:50AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 5%
No 98% 95%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
 30 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 10:50AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 14%
No 97% 86%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
 43 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 10:50AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 10:51AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 3%
No 98% 97%
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