Forecasted Questions
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 04, 2023 03:56PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Sep 04, 2023 03:56PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 1% | +5% | -2% |
| No | 94% | 99% | -5% | +2% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 04, 2023 03:57PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Sep 04, 2023 03:57PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 4% | +4% | -3% |
| No | 92% | 96% | -4% | +3% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 04, 2023 03:58PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Sep 04, 2023 03:58PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 3% | 9% | -6% | -5% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 4% | 11% | -7% | +1% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2023 01:50AM UTC
(8 months ago)
Sep 25, 2023 01:50AM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 2% | +7% | -4% |
| No | 91% | 98% | -7% | +4% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2023 01:52AM UTC
(8 months ago)
Sep 25, 2023 01:52AM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 79% | 13% | +66% | -42% |
| No | 21% | 87% | -66% | +42% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2023 01:52AM UTC
(8 months ago)
Sep 25, 2023 01:52AM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 4% | -2% | -6% |
| No | 98% | 96% | +2% | +6% |