spiffy-reserve-34

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No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
We're very close to that date and country leadership all over the world are testing out these capabilities
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Why might you be wrong?
A restrictive regime decides to cut access bc of population concerns
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
This would be a major cost added to their operating costs
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Why might you be wrong?
They might have an unknown financial incentive
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
this is already happening, so i expect it to be included
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Why might you be wrong?
Meta will decide not to include for corporate reasons
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New Prediction
i think this is 50/50 because i understand the use case but think there will be legal challenges
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New Prediction
spiffy-reserve-34
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
50%
Less than 4 million
25%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
25%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
I think there are worries from users about information security and privacy 
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Why might you be wrong?
Many people are open to the ID of convenience
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spiffy-reserve-34
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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spiffy-reserve-34
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
First, labeling posts has already been widely used from flagging, to community notes, etc and second this is something that people are actively concerned with so the platforms are most certainly planning for some way to assuage worries.
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Why might you be wrong?
The platforms find it too difficult and/or controversial. 
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