Going roughly with consensus here.
I think the only way he leaves office in the next year or so is if he dies. Pretty sure that election will be "managed". Haven't heard of anyone with the capacity for a coup either.
0.308797
Relative Brier Score
140
Forecasts
87
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 24 | 149 | 140 | 149 |
| Comments | 1 | 4 | 89 | 79 | 89 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 19 | 26 | 24 | 26 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 3 | 96 | 87 | 96 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
Yes
1%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
May 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2024
99%
No
May 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2024
Low probability in the next 6 months. Probably actually sub-1%, IMHO.
The only potential candidates I can see with both the capability and the desire to do so are Israel, the US, or a Saudi-led coalition. In each case, they can get better results right now on the diplomatic front.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-9%)
Yes
May 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2024
99%
(+9%)
No
May 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2024
Going down. Don't see any indication of escalation or probability of a declared war right now. Both sides are carefully calibrating.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-8%)
Yes
May 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
98%
(+8%)
No
May 10, 2024 to May 10, 2025
Going down. Don't see any indication of escalation or probability of a declared war right now. Both sides are carefully calibrating.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-10%)
Yes
May 7, 2024 to Nov 7, 2024
85%
(+10%)
No
May 7, 2024 to Nov 7, 2024
Lowering on lack of news.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+15%)
Yes
20%
(-15%)
No
Going right back up again.
TESS found at least one in the past month (not yet on the PHL catalog).
Paper here: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/ad1d5c
Files
Fair enough.
One commentary I saw said the researchers were most interested in trying to detect exomoons of that mini-Neptune.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Holding at current high level for now.
Hamas has accepted the (currently non-public) terms of the deal proposed by Qatar and Egypt. Israel has said they are evaluating.
Hopefully this will stick, finally.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(-10%)
Yes
May 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2024
80%
(+10%)
No
May 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2024
Dropping a bit on time elapsed. Still above the crowd forecast, on the expectation that there will eventually be a ceasefire in place, and that the US is pushing for a Saudi-Israeli deal before the elections.
Files
Remaining low. I'd classify my level as "highly unlikely".
I recently read some old material that may have a bearing on this: should Iran decide to make a nuclear weapon, the radioactive material for it won't come from any of the known sites. Those sites, although hardened, are physically limited in size, such that they don't have capacity to sustain a full-blown nuclear program. What Iran is doing there is building the know-how for how to create a nuclear program, and as such there's little military utility in anyone actually attacking those sites. The Stuxnet and assassination programs (probably Israeli, but never declared) occurred at a much earlier phase in their development. There hasn't been any public evidence of continued attacks on Iranian nuclear sites in recent years, likely for the reason given above. It wouldn't produce the results desired.