Forecasted Questions
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2024 01:56AM UTC
(29 days ago)
Apr 14, 2024 01:56AM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 | Jul 14, 2024 | 6% | +14% | -3% |
| No | 80% | Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 | Jul 14, 2024 | 94% | -14% | +3% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 16, 2024 02:19AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Apr 16, 2024 02:19AM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 01:40AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Apr 21, 2024 01:40AM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024 | May 21, 2024 | 21% | -20% | +9% |
| No | 99% | Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024 | May 21, 2024 | 79% | +20% | -9% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 01:40AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Apr 21, 2024 01:40AM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Apr 21, 2024 to Apr 21, 2025 | Jul 21, 2024 | 13% | -12% | -3% |
| No | 99% | Apr 21, 2024 to Apr 21, 2025 | Jul 21, 2024 | 87% | +12% | +3% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 01:40AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Apr 21, 2024 01:40AM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024 | May 21, 2024 | 4% | +31% | +2% |
| No | 65% | Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024 | May 21, 2024 | 96% | -31% | -2% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 01:40AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Apr 21, 2024 01:40AM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 1% | 9% | -8% | +1% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 5% | 11% | -6% | -1% |
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(19 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 01:52AM UTC
(10 days ago)
May 03, 2024 01:52AM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2% | +3% | +1% |
| No | 95% | 98% | -3% | -1% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 02:35PM UTC
(8 days ago)
May 05, 2024 02:35PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | May 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2024 | Aug 5, 2024 | 7% | -6% | -1% |
| No | 99% | May 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2024 | Aug 5, 2024 | 93% | +6% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 02:55PM UTC
(8 days ago)
May 05, 2024 02:55PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 5% | 14% | -9% | -1% |
| Armenia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Georgia | 15% | 7% | +8% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 10% | 2% | +8% | -1% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 03:04PM UTC
(8 days ago)
May 05, 2024 03:04PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | May 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2024 | Jun 5, 2024 | 2% | +18% | -1% |
| No | 80% | May 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2024 | Jun 5, 2024 | 98% | -18% | +1% |