Going roughly with consensus here.
I think the only way he leaves office in the next year or so is if he dies. Pretty sure that election will be "managed". Haven't heard of anyone with the capacity for a coup either.
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Going roughly with consensus here.
I think the only way he leaves office in the next year or so is if he dies. Pretty sure that election will be "managed". Haven't heard of anyone with the capacity for a coup either.
Low probability in the next 6 months. Probably actually sub-1%, IMHO.
The only potential candidates I can see with both the capability and the desire to do so are Israel, the US, or a Saudi-led coalition. In each case, they can get better results right now on the diplomatic front.
Going down. Don't see any indication of escalation or probability of a declared war right now. Both sides are carefully calibrating.
Going down. Don't see any indication of escalation or probability of a declared war right now. Both sides are carefully calibrating.
Lowering on lack of news.
Going right back up again.
TESS found at least one in the past month (not yet on the PHL catalog).
Paper here: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/ad1d5c
Fair enough.
One commentary I saw said the researchers were most interested in trying to detect exomoons of that mini-Neptune.
Holding at current high level for now.
Hamas has accepted the (currently non-public) terms of the deal proposed by Qatar and Egypt. Israel has said they are evaluating.
Hopefully this will stick, finally.
Dropping a bit on time elapsed. Still above the crowd forecast, on the expectation that there will eventually be a ceasefire in place, and that the US is pushing for a Saudi-Israeli deal before the elections.
Remaining low. I'd classify my level as "highly unlikely".
I recently read some old material that may have a bearing on this: should Iran decide to make a nuclear weapon, the radioactive material for it won't come from any of the known sites. Those sites, although hardened, are physically limited in size, such that they don't have capacity to sustain a full-blown nuclear program. What Iran is doing there is building the know-how for how to create a nuclear program, and as such there's little military utility in anyone actually attacking those sites. The Stuxnet and assassination programs (probably Israeli, but never declared) occurred at a much earlier phase in their development. There hasn't been any public evidence of continued attacks on Iranian nuclear sites in recent years, likely for the reason given above. It wouldn't produce the results desired.