ioaurelius

I am super confuzzled about what counts as a "major" offensive, but I think it is likely for the Ukrainian government to say a "major offensive" is taking place in Kharkiv. 

vibes

I didn't know the crowd forecast was automatically weighted in favor of top forecasters. 

ennui

Since Maduro has banned his major opponents from participating in the election (and likely has other contingencies in place to rig the election, including control of the electorate assembly and the group that runs the polls), this question is resolved by default unless  1) he dies, 2) he gives up office, or 3) the military unseats him. Other scenarios I can think of seem too unlikely to mention here. 

The first two are extremely unlikely. Why? Maduro is 61, with actuarial tables giving him a chance of death in the following year ~1.5%, though note Maduro likely has a healthier lifestyle than most 60 yr olds, better genetics, and better healthcare. And dictators rarely give up control over a country while still healthy.

A military coup is possible. There have been at least 4 armed attempts to overthrow the government in the last 30 years, 3 from the military. Notably, all have been unsuccessful, and Maduro probably has close ties to the military stemming from his relationship with Hugo Chavez.