ioaurelius

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2024 Season Stats

0.025148

Relative Brier Score

120

Forecasts

10

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 22 93 120 120 120
Comments 2 33 45 45 45
Questions Forecasted 12 22 25 25 25
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 6 10 10 10
 Definitions
New Prediction

Cooler head

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New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
ioaurelius made their 9th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
100% (+1%)
Less than or equal to 499
0% (-1%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0% (0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0% (0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 2000

updating

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New Prediction

Realize I'm arrogant, don't know the future, etc. and moving towards crowd. In general, have noticed strong tendency to be overconfident. 

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New Prediction
New Prediction

Further down for time. A 6 week ceasefire is not good for Hamas because it gives Israel the freedom to get civilians out of Rafah before the attack. 

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New Prediction
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
ioaurelius made their 7th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
99% (+3%)
Less than or equal to 49
1% (-2%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0% (-1%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0% (0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 200

No time to forecast.

Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
ioaurelius made their 5th forecast (view all):
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ioaurelius quit this question on Apr 24, 2024 08:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
17% (-4%)
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024
83% (+4%)
No
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024

.

Files
New Prediction
Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
ioaurelius made their 6th forecast (view all):
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ioaurelius quit this question on Apr 24, 2024 03:53PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (+3%)
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to May 24, 2024
93% (-3%)
No
Apr 24, 2024 to May 24, 2024

.

Files
New Prediction
Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
ioaurelius made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
ioaurelius quit this question on Apr 24, 2024 03:53PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (-2%)
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to May 24, 2024
96% (+2%)
No
Apr 24, 2024 to May 24, 2024

.

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