Forecasted Questions
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
You quit this question on Apr 24, 2024 08:38PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 05:22PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Apr 17, 2024 05:22PM UTC
(26 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 4% | +2% | -1% |
| No | 94% | 96% | -2% | +1% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
You quit this question on Apr 24, 2024 08:39PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 18, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 18, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | Apr 18, 2024 to Oct 18, 2024 | Jul 18, 2024 | 7% | +7% | -2% |
| No | 86% | Apr 18, 2024 to Oct 18, 2024 | Jul 18, 2024 | 93% | -7% | +2% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 23, 2024 01:57PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Apr 23, 2024 01:57PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 749 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| Between 750 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive | 0% | 5% | -5% | -5% |
| Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive | 100% | 94% | +6% | +6% |
| More than or equal to 3000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
You quit this question on Apr 24, 2024 03:44PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:44PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 03:44PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024 | May 24, 2024 | 3% | +1% | -2% |
| No | 96% | Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024 | May 24, 2024 | 97% | -1% | +2% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
You quit this question on Apr 24, 2024 03:46PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 4% | +5% | -1% |
| No | 91% | 96% | -5% | +1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 96% | +3% | +0% |
Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
You quit this question on Apr 24, 2024 03:53PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 03:53PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | Apr 24, 2024 to May 24, 2024 | May 24, 2024 | 6% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 93% | Apr 24, 2024 to May 24, 2024 | May 24, 2024 | 94% | -1% | +0% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
You quit this question on Apr 24, 2024 08:38PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024 | May 24, 2024 | 14% | +3% | -3% |
| No | 83% | Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024 | May 24, 2024 | 86% | -3% | +3% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 12% | -12% | -2% |
| No | 100% | 88% | +12% | +2% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 04:48PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Apr 27, 2024 04:48PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 499 | 100% | 99% | +1% | +2% |
| Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 0% | 1% | -1% | -2% |
| Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |