I've indicated a low probability for my forecast due to the resolution criteria specifying that the election must be nationwide.
Recent reports suggest that an election will take place, but it would not be nationwide, largely due to security concerns.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmars-next-election-may-not-be-nationwide-junta-chief-says-2024-03-25/
These security concerns appear to be set to intensify, especially given recent developments related to the Karen National Liberation Army
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/myanmar-junta-under-siege
One (perhaps remote) possibility is that the junta loses ground completely in the coming months, and that elections next year are held in a completely different political and security climate
Increasing the probability for my forecast slightly for two reasons:
1) Reports that Microsoft has asked some of its staff based in China to relocate due to strained relations between China and the US
https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-asks-hundreds-china-based-staff-relocate-amid-us-china-tensions-wsj-2024-05-16/
2) Reports that the Biden administration will clamp down further on China's access to AI through export controls. These will force the hand of Microsoft and other American companies operating in China
https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-eyes-curbs-chinas-access-ai-software-behind-apps-like-chatgpt-2024-05-08/