harjanim

Increasing the probability for my forecast slightly for two reasons:

1) Reports that Microsoft has asked some of its staff based in China to relocate due to strained relations between China and the US

https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-asks-hundreds-china-based-staff-relocate-amid-us-china-tensions-wsj-2024-05-16/

2) Reports that the Biden administration will clamp down further on China's access to AI through export controls. These will force the hand of Microsoft and other American companies operating in China

https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-eyes-curbs-chinas-access-ai-software-behind-apps-like-chatgpt-2024-05-08/

I've indicated a low probability for my forecast due to the resolution criteria specifying that the election must be nationwide.

Recent reports suggest that an election will take place, but it would not be nationwide, largely due to security concerns.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmars-next-election-may-not-be-nationwide-junta-chief-says-2024-03-25/

These security concerns appear to be set to intensify, especially given recent developments related to the Karen National Liberation Army

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/myanmar-junta-under-siege

One (perhaps remote) possibility is that the junta loses ground completely in the coming months, and that elections next year are held in a completely different political and security climate

https://www.deccanherald.com/world/the-tuesday-interview-a-new-federal-democratic-myanmar-is-emerging-juntas-days-are-numbered-india-should-stop-selling-weapons-to-it-2961163

Assigning a low probability to my forecast for this question, for two main reasons:

1) Given China Mobile's involvement in the O-RAN Alliance, if Huawei wanted to join, it would have done so already. The reason offered by Huawei (at least for the public domain) is that O-RAN doesn't align with the company's priorities

https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/

2) There could also be some weight to the argument that Huawei is deliberately staying away from O-RAN to avoid toxifying it (O-RAN is for now seen as a credible alternative to Chinese vendors for 5G, even if this doesn't make complete sense given the heavy involvement of Chinese players in the O-RAN Alliance)

https://strandconsult.dk/does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-just-playing-poker-with-the-o-ran-alliance-and-policymakers/

Maintaining my forecast.

There has been no (reported) news in the past month to suggest that Microsoft is planning to close or relocate its AI research lab in China.

As highlighted in previous forecasts, the likelihood of a complete closure or relocation is unlikely due to the significance Microsoft has traditionally attached to the Chinese market.

It's possible, however, as Microsoft builds up its resources elsewhere in the region, the importance of the AI research lab could diminish over time. For example, Microsoft has a planned expansion in Japan 

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/finance/news/microsoft-invest-2-9-bn-032821432.html

Raising my forecast marginally to match the one for the question on Saudi Arabia.

Even though the US has been pushing Saudi Arabia hard on normalisation (perhaps under the assumption that other Arab countries would follow Saudi Arabia's lead), an agreement in the next six months remains very unlikely because of the war in Gaza.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/04/blinken-says-us-almost-ready-saudi-rewards-israel-normalisation

Maintaining my forecast for the following reasons:

1) Israel-Saudi Arabia normalisation is very unlikely to be decoupled from the war in Gaza. As long as the war continues, normalisation is off the table.

https://www.ft.com/content/821b67bd-5736-4ffd-b66f-3bb1830560d2

2) The recent retaliatory strikes by Iran further dampen the possibility of normalisation with Israel and risk unravelling progress made in recent years

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gulf-states-vulnerable-influential-seek-stop-new-iran-israel-war-2024-04-14/

Nevertheless, one factor weighing in the other direction is US pressure on Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel despite what is happening in Gaza:

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240402-us-security-adviser-to-meet-saudis-mbs-to-discuss-israel-mega-deal/

Confirming my previous forecast, primarily due to the passage of time.