INFER Public

Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?

Question Ends:
Oct 28, 2020 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2020 12:35AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2020 12:48AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2020 01:02AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2020 07:44PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $200 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $200 million and $300 million, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $300 million but less than or equal to $400 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $400 million but less than or equal to $500 million		Answer was correct
More than $500 million		Answer was incorrect

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2021 05:20PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 26, 2021 01:31AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 26,000		Answer was correct
Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 32,000		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2021 08:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 01, 2021 01:29PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2021 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 02, 2021 04:02PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 31, 2021 10:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 10, 2021 03:09AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

logarithmic

Charles

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