What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?
1 Forecast
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 23, 2020 02:13PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 15% | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive | Answer was correct | |||
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 21% | Answer was incorrect |
Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?
1 Forecast
Oct 28, 2020 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 28, 2020 01:46AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?
1 Forecast
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 28, 2020 01:51AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?
1 Forecast
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 28, 2020 01:57AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 30% | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 30 and 33%, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 33% but less than or equal to 36% | Answer was correct | |||
More than 36% but less than or equal to 39% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 39% | Answer was incorrect |
How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?
1 Forecast
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 28, 2020 01:58AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than $200 million | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between $200 million and $300 million, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $300 million but less than or equal to $400 million | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $400 million but less than or equal to $500 million | Answer was correct | |||
More than $500 million | Answer was incorrect |