Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive?
Started
Mar 23, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Egypt’s headline urban inflation rate rose to 31.9% in February 2023, its highest level in over five years, as political instability, the coronavirus pandemic, and supply chain disruptions have weakened Egypt’s economy (Reuters, PBS). This jump of over 6 percentage points from January alarmed economists, leading some to anticipate that the Central Bank of Egypt will raise interest rates by as much as 300 basis points in their March meeting (Egypt Independent).
This question will be resolved using annual headline urban inflation rate data reported by the Central Bank of Egypt.
NOTE: Some publications report the core inflation rate (which was 40.3% for February 2023) or the inflation rate that includes rural areas (which was 32.9%) instead of or alongside the headline urban inflation rate. Please ensure that you are using the correct inflation rate when conducting your analysis.
Read more about the Egypt's inflation crisis on the INFER blog.
Additional Reading:
Resolution Notes
Egypt's headline inflation rate peaked at 37.4% in August: https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/economic-research/statistics/inflation-rates
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.97% | |
| No | 99.03% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 59 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 59 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 420 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 210 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
