The Pub Blog

Looking for blog posts from our Foretell archive? Find them here.

INFER introduces new topic to assess U.S. competitiveness in synthetic biology, focusing first on the energy sector

By: INFER Team | Aug 19, 2022 05:20PM UTC

INFER has launched a new topic area on synthetic biology to assess how this field will transform U.S. competitiveness and increase national security in the energy sector.

Thoughts from a Pro: How crowd forecasting can benefit public health policy

By: Zev Burton | Aug 16, 2022 03:11PM UTC

In this edition of "Thoughts from a Pro," we caught up with a Pro who submitted the recently-closed PHEIC question, Alex Demarsh!

Monkeypox: The outcome we didn’t expect

By: Zev Burton | Aug 15, 2022 06:35PM UTC

Why were we, as a crowd, trending in the wrong direction on this question? Granted, with a 30% chance of occurring, it’s going to happen three out of ten times, but why wasn’t our forecast higher? 

New features: pre-mortems and accuracy comparisons

By: Zev Burton | Jul 15, 2022 01:16PM UTC

Take a look at the development team's new features to improve your forecasting!

Forecaster spotlights: Meet Dawna and Ryan, our community mentors

By: INFER Team | Jul 08, 2022 05:10PM UTC

Meet Dawna Coutant and Ryan Beck, our community mentors!  You may have seen notes and comments on our discussion boards from these two Pro Forecasters aimed to help you in your own forecasting. Get to know them, how they approach forecasting, and their advice for honing your skills. 

Topic brief: The global AI race

By: Zev Burton | Jul 07, 2022 07:08PM UTC

An introduction to the global artificial intelligence (AI) competition as a starting point for your forecasting.

Dear Fern: Why do we use numbers to express a forecast?

By: Zev Burton | Jun 28, 2022 04:48PM UTC

Fern answers a question concerning the ambiguity of language and explains why INFER uses numerical probabilities instead.

Topic brief: Microelectronics 101

By: Zev Burton | Jun 15, 2022 06:55PM UTC

A basic introduction to the field of microelectronics as a starting point for your forecasting.

New question release: AI patents in U.S. and China, and AI scientific publications in the EU

By: Zev Burton | Jun 13, 2022 05:08PM UTC

This week, we released questions on AI patent development and scientific publications.

New question release: AI “high impact” projects, publications, and skills

By: Zev Burton | Jun 01, 2022 07:16PM UTC

In this batch of new questions, users can forecast about high-impact AI projects, AI publications, and AI skills penetration.

By the numbers: INFER forecasts increase and "time" is most popular word in April

By: Zev Burton | May 26, 2022 09:00PM UTC

In the first "By the Numbers," we explore the number of forecasts, how accurate forecasters were, and many other statistics about INFER forecasts during the month of April. 

New question release: AI patents, skill demand, and Chinese publications

By: INFER Team | May 13, 2022 08:42PM UTC

This week's new question release features questions on AI related patents, domestic demand for AI skills, and Chinese research output.

Dear Fern: I'm not an expert

By: INFER Team | May 10, 2022 04:11PM UTC

A new advice column in which forecasters write in to "Fern" for help with anything forecasting related. Today's forecaster writes in: I'm not an expert on AI or microelectronics, can I still forecast on these questions?

Who is winning the AI race: United States, China, or someone else?

By: INFER Team | May 03, 2022 07:41PM UTC

Learn about the factors we are assessing to understand the global state of artificial intelligence and which countries we will be focusing on with our new Strategic Question: Which countries will lead AI developments in research, technology, and human capital in the coming decade? 

Effective altruism students hone forecasting skills in first INFER tournament

By: Henry Tolchard | Apr 20, 2022 06:50PM UTC

INFER has launched its first tournament for effective altruism (EA) student groups. EA groups from top universities around the world are learning forecasting techniques and putting skills into practice in an attempt to be more accurate in predicting the future.

New question release: aluminum prices, lithography machines, and China’s top universities

By: INFER Team | Mar 31, 2022 08:34PM UTC

This week's new question release features questions on aluminum prices, sales of extreme ultraviolet lithography machinery to the U.S., and rankings of Chinese universities in computer science.

Microelectronics: A major factor for assessing U.S. competitiveness in AI

By: INFER Team | Mar 29, 2022 09:54PM UTC

Learn about all the factors we're assessing to understand the U.S. competitive position in microelectronics, a key contributor to the U.S. overall competitiveness in AI.

Assessing U.S. competitiveness in AI using crowdsourced forecasting

By: INFER Team | Mar 25, 2022 04:12PM UTC

Learn about INFER's U.S. Competitiveness in AI topic area and the decomposition we used to develop forecast questions.

Get better answers by asking better questions: understanding strategic question decomposition

By: INFER Team | Feb 18, 2022 10:51PM UTC

Learn how the INFER team uses a process called “Strategic Question Decomposition” to develop forecast questions that help shed light on broader strategic issues.

New feature releases: analysis tab, comment filters

By: INFER Team | Feb 18, 2022 10:51PM UTC

We have recently introduced two new features on INFER to help you evaluate and use crowd forecasts and comments with greater ease and precision. Within each question page, you can now find 1) an Analysis tab and 2) comment filters.

Pro Forecasters: What they do and why they're an important part of INFER Public

By: INFER Team | Feb 02, 2022 04:49PM UTC

We've launched the 2022 Pro Forecaster program, comprised of 100 forecasters paid to dedicate time to forecasting, collaborating with other Pros, and attending exclusive trainings and events. Here's what's new for 2022, why INFER is investing in growing the program -- and how you can become a Pro!

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