INFER has launched a new topic area on synthetic biology to assess how this field will transform U.S. competitiveness and increase national security in the energy sector.

In this edition of "Thoughts from a Pro," we caught up with a Pro who submitted the recently-closed PHEIC question, Alex Demarsh!

Why were we, as a crowd, trending in the wrong direction on this question? Granted, with a 30% chance of occurring, it’s going to happen three out of ten times, but why wasn’t our forecast higher? 

Take a look at the development team's new features to improve your forecasting!

Meet Dawna Coutant and Ryan Beck, our community mentors!  You may have seen notes and comments on our discussion boards from these two Pro Forecasters aimed to help you in your own forecasting. Get to know them, how they approach forecasting, and their advice for honing your skills. 

An introduction to the global artificial intelligence (AI) competition as a starting point for your forecasting.

Fern answers a question concerning the ambiguity of language and explains why INFER uses numerical probabilities instead.

A basic introduction to the field of microelectronics as a starting point for your forecasting.

This week, we released questions on AI patent development and scientific publications.

In this batch of new questions, users can forecast about high-impact AI projects, AI publications, and AI skills penetration.

In the first "By the Numbers," we explore the number of forecasts, how accurate forecasters were, and many other statistics about INFER forecasts during the month of April. 

This week's new question release features questions on AI related patents, domestic demand for AI skills, and Chinese research output.

A new advice column in which forecasters write in to "Fern" for help with anything forecasting related. Today's forecaster writes in: I'm not an expert on AI or microelectronics, can I still forecast on these questions?

Learn about the factors we are assessing to understand the global state of artificial intelligence and which countries we will be focusing on with our new Strategic Question: Which countries will lead AI developments in research, technology, and human capital in the coming decade? 

INFER has launched its first tournament for effective altruism (EA) student groups. EA groups from top universities around the world are learning forecasting techniques and putting skills into practice in an attempt to be more accurate in predicting the future.

This week's new question release features questions on aluminum prices, sales of extreme ultraviolet lithography machinery to the U.S., and rankings of Chinese universities in computer science.

Learn about all the factors we're assessing to understand the U.S. competitive position in microelectronics, a key contributor to the U.S. overall competitiveness in AI.

Learn about INFER's U.S. Competitiveness in AI topic area and the decomposition we used to develop forecast questions.

Learn how the INFER team uses a process called “Strategic Question Decomposition” to develop forecast questions that help shed light on broader strategic issues.

We have recently introduced two new features on INFER to help you evaluate and use crowd forecasts and comments with greater ease and precision. Within each question page, you can now find 1) an Analysis tab and 2) comment filters.

We've launched the 2022 Pro Forecaster program, comprised of 100 forecasters paid to dedicate time to forecasting, collaborating with other Pros, and attending exclusive trainings and events. Here's what's new for 2022, why INFER is investing in growing the program -- and how you can become a Pro!