The Pub Blog

Looking for blog posts from our Foretell archive? Find them here.

Learning and improving our forecasts together: crowd forecast change alerts

By: INFER Team | Feb 10, 2023 03:18PM UTC

Crowd forecasting allows you to get signals about events before they happen. We're making it even easier to be alerted to important signals by introducing crowd forecast change alerts – which notify you of sudden shifts in the consensus forecast.

A look back at 2022 and where we’re headed

By: INFER Team | Dec 21, 2022 09:39PM UTC

As the inaugural season of INFER comes to an end, we wanted to take a moment to reflect on some of our accomplishments as a community, our lessons learned, and also give you a glimpse of new initiatives we’re excited to share with you in 2023. 

2023 Pro Forecaster selections begin in December

By: INFER Team | Dec 12, 2022 02:18PM UTC

INFER is pleased to announce that the Pro Forecaster Program will continue into the 2023 season. Up to 100 Pro Forecasters (“Pros”) are being selected for the program, which includes monthly payment for dedicated forecasting and exclusive training and events.

New question release: Monitoring trends in quantum computing

By: Zev Burton | Nov 01, 2022 06:19PM UTC

INFER launched new questions asking about advancements in quantum computing as part of the Global AI Race topic. This post explains why we chose those questions and what the answers suggest about the future direction of AI.

Bias control: Confirmation bias

By: Zev Burton | Oct 27, 2022 05:28PM UTC

In our first blog series on cognitive biases, we dive into confirmation bias: what is it, and how can we avoid it in our forecasts?

A guide to making an initial forecast

By: Henry Tolchard | Oct 26, 2022 07:41PM UTC

Making your first forecast? This guide will provide steps and example prompts that you can use to approach any forecast question for the first time.

EA Tournament participants learned to forecast for a better future

By: Henry Tolchard | Oct 06, 2022 03:39PM UTC

What did EA student groups from universities across the globe learn during INFER's first forecasting tournament? The winning team, many of whom were first-time forecasters, share their thoughts!

New question release: Alternative fuels, impossible foods and thermoplastics

By: Zev Burton | Oct 03, 2022 03:57PM UTC

A new batch of questions has launched in our latest topic, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector. This post discusses why we chose those questions and what the answers suggest about the direction the field is headed in.

Topic brief: Synthetic biology

By: Zev Burton | Sep 20, 2022 07:35PM UTC

With the launch of the new topic, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector, we’ve put together this Topic Brief filled with resources to help you make your forecasts.

Sneak peek: Forecaster training program coming soon; Pros begin this week with an open-source research training

By: INFER Team | Sep 06, 2022 06:52PM UTC

We're excited to show you a sneak peek of our new Forecaster Training Program designed by our partners at Pytho. Special live training on open source research techniques will also be offered to a select group of Pros and other forecasters.

New question release: Funding for biofuels, algae-based fuels, and renewable energy

By: Zev Burton | Sep 06, 2022 04:20PM UTC

The first set of questions just launched in the new topic, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector. This post explains why we selected those questions and what they help to signal about the future of the field.

INFER introduces new topic to assess U.S. competitiveness in synthetic biology, focusing first on the energy sector

By: INFER Team | Aug 19, 2022 05:20PM UTC

INFER has launched a new topic area on synthetic biology to assess how this field will transform U.S. competitiveness and increase national security in the energy sector.

Thoughts from a Pro: How crowd forecasting can benefit public health policy

By: Zev Burton | Aug 16, 2022 03:11PM UTC

In this edition of "Thoughts from a Pro," we caught up with a Pro who submitted the recently-closed PHEIC question, Alex Demarsh!

Monkeypox: The outcome we didn’t expect

By: Zev Burton | Aug 15, 2022 06:35PM UTC

Why were we, as a crowd, trending in the wrong direction on this question? Granted, with a 30% chance of occurring, it’s going to happen three out of ten times, but why wasn’t our forecast higher? 

New features: pre-mortems and accuracy comparisons

By: Zev Burton | Jul 15, 2022 01:16PM UTC

Take a look at the development team's new features to improve your forecasting!

Forecaster spotlights: Meet Dawna and Ryan, our community mentors

By: INFER Team | Jul 08, 2022 05:10PM UTC

Meet Dawna Coutant and Ryan Beck, our community mentors!  You may have seen notes and comments on our discussion boards from these two Pro Forecasters aimed to help you in your own forecasting. Get to know them, how they approach forecasting, and their advice for honing your skills. 

Topic brief: The global AI race

By: Zev Burton | Jul 07, 2022 07:08PM UTC

An introduction to the global artificial intelligence (AI) competition as a starting point for your forecasting.

Dear Fern: Why do we use numbers to express a forecast?

By: Zev Burton | Jun 28, 2022 04:48PM UTC

Fern answers a question concerning the ambiguity of language and explains why INFER uses numerical probabilities instead.

Topic brief: Microelectronics 101

By: Zev Burton | Jun 15, 2022 06:55PM UTC

A basic introduction to the field of microelectronics as a starting point for your forecasting.

New question release: AI patents in U.S. and China, and AI scientific publications in the EU

By: Zev Burton | Jun 13, 2022 05:08PM UTC

This week, we released questions on AI patent development and scientific publications.

New question release: AI “high impact” projects, publications, and skills

By: Zev Burton | Jun 01, 2022 07:16PM UTC

In this batch of new questions, users can forecast about high-impact AI projects, AI publications, and AI skills penetration.

By the numbers: INFER forecasts increase and "time" is most popular word in April

By: Zev Burton | May 26, 2022 09:00PM UTC

In the first "By the Numbers," we explore the number of forecasts, how accurate forecasters were, and many other statistics about INFER forecasts during the month of April. 

New question release: AI patents, skill demand, and Chinese publications

By: INFER Team | May 13, 2022 08:42PM UTC

This week's new question release features questions on AI related patents, domestic demand for AI skills, and Chinese research output.

Dear Fern: I'm not an expert

By: INFER Team | May 10, 2022 04:11PM UTC

A new advice column in which forecasters write in to "Fern" for help with anything forecasting related. Today's forecaster writes in: I'm not an expert on AI or microelectronics, can I still forecast on these questions?

Who is winning the AI race: United States, China, or someone else?

By: INFER Team | May 03, 2022 07:41PM UTC

Learn about the factors we are assessing to understand the global state of artificial intelligence and which countries we will be focusing on with our new Strategic Question: Which countries will lead AI developments in research, technology, and human capital in the coming decade? 

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username