The Pub Blog

Looking for blog posts from our Foretell archive? Find them here.

Program Update: INFER now led by RAND

By: INFER Team | Feb 09, 2024 01:10AM UTC

We're pleased to announce this new relationship, which will enable INFER to leverage RAND subject matter expertise as we aim to strengthen decision analysis within the U.S. government. 

INFER's Best of 2023: Celebrating Forecaster Accomplishments

By: INFER Team | Jan 23, 2024 03:20PM UTC

INFER is pleased to share the Best of 2023 list, celebrating our most accurate and engaged forecasters from last season.

Looking back: How INFER navigated global uncertainty in 2023

By: INFER Team | Dec 18, 2023 07:11PM UTC

We are concluding INFER’s second year of crowd forecasting following a year rife with uncertainty for policymakers. INFER’s community of forecasters parsed complex issues to make sense of critical events that will shape the future for years to come.

Forecasting the next stage of the Israel-Hamas war

By: Walter Frick | Nov 07, 2023 03:29PM UTC

INFER forecasters and experts weigh in on questions related to the Israel-Hamas war, including the chance of a ceasefire in Gaza, the likelihood of Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel, of Iran and Israel going to war, and more. 


INFER explores how Iranian influence on violent non-state actors (VNSAs) will develop in the near future

By: INFER Team | Nov 02, 2023 07:13PM UTC

INFER has launched a new strategic topic to support a U.S. Government stakeholder who wants to understand the future outlook of Iran’s influence on violent non-state actors.

Forecasting Iran’s nuclear development

By: INFER Team | Oct 06, 2023 09:12PM UTC

Three years after the U.S. pulled out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, Iran began ignoring the deal’s restrictions on its nuclear program. Now, using our issue decomposition process, INFER is assessing the likelihood that Iran will produce a nuclear weapon.

Google experts join INFER forecasting meetup to explore the future of AI

By: INFER Team | Sep 25, 2023 05:37PM UTC

A recap of a special forecasting event INFER hosted about the future of AI, attended by select INFER forecasters and nearly two dozen forecasting enthusiasts who work at Google, joining in a personal capacity.

How INFER enhances the connection between hard science and policy

By: Henry Tolchard | Sep 25, 2023 04:17PM UTC

INFER aims to strengthen the connection between science and policymaking when it comes to assessing risks by providing a new source of information that can serve as a complement to scientific assessments.

What’s next for the Iran nuclear deal?

By: Walter Frick | Sep 13, 2023 09:17PM UTC

Does the JCPOA—or something like it—have a future? Forecasters at INFER have been tackling a series of questions related to the deal and to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. They’ve forecasted the likelihood of Iran leaving the JCPOA, as well as of other participants enacting “snapback” sanctions.

Using AI to improve your forecast rationale

By: Henry Tolchard | Jul 27, 2023 08:09PM UTC

In this post, we explore how you can use an AI tool like ChatGPT to gain a quick understanding of a complex forecast topic as well as improve the logical support behind your rationale.

INFER crowd and expert forecasts shape a talk for government officials on how AI will impact disinformation campaigns

By: Walter Frick | Jul 19, 2023 03:24PM UTC

Are we entering an era of even more rampant misinformation with the rise of AI? That was the focus of a recent talk supported by INFER as part of the Phoenix Challenge, a seminar series for senior officials in governments, think tanks and other policy experts. See how the INFER crowd forecasts on this topic compared with the experts.

INFER forecasters weigh the prospects of Ukraine’s counteroffensive

By: Walter Frick | Jun 27, 2023 04:31PM UTC

All spring, the world waited for Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia to begin. Now that it is under way, policymakers around the world are closely monitoring its prospects. Forecasters at INFER are tracking the conflict, too, and predicting the amount of territory each side will hold by the end of the year. 

INFER forecasters: Don’t expect GPT-5 anytime soon

By: Walter Frick | May 22, 2023 09:03PM UTC

The next generation of OpenAI’s technology isn't likely to arrive this year, according to INFER forecasters as well as analysts tracking AI. In the meantime, though, OpenAI likely has other priorities.

Team Leads cross the finish line on half-year forecasting tournament with teammates

By: INFER Team | May 10, 2023 01:28PM UTC

Last fall, INFER introduced a new Team Lead opportunity for forecasters who were interested in getting others in their community involved in crowd forecasting. Team Leads were tasked with recruiting and leading a team of forecasters in a six-month forecasting tournament that ended in April.

Introducing the INFER mobile app

By: INFER Team | May 08, 2023 07:33PM UTC

Our forecasters have been asking for a mobile app – and we are excited to share that it is now available for INFER. You will now be able to submit forecasts on critical questions to support INFER’s government stakeholders directly from our native app on a phone or tablet. 

INFER forecasters: Egypt’s inflation could get worse before it gets better

By: Walter Frick | May 01, 2023 09:31PM UTC

Inflation has been surging in Egypt since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and it shows little sign of abating, according to both experts and INFER forecasters. In fact, it’s probable that Egypt’s inflation problem will get worse.

What’s the future outlook for biofuels?

By: Walter Frick | Apr 19, 2023 05:47PM UTC

The world will need to ramp up its use of biofuels in order to decarbonize transportation, according to the International Energy Agency.  But, will that happen? What will contribute to growth in this sector? See what forecasters on INFER are saying about this topic across a range of questions that speak to both biofuels’ short- and long-term potential. 

How our 2023 Pro Forecasters earned their spot and welcoming the new Pro All Stars

By: INFER Team | Mar 23, 2023 04:55PM UTC

INFER welcomed a new cohort of 85 Pro Forecasters with a kickoff event in February. Pros were selected to be part of the paid program for their proven forecasting performance, and play a key role in generating quality data for U.S. Government decision makers. 10 Pros were recognized with a new All Star designation!

What to do when a question resolution doesn’t go your way: conducting a post-mortem

By: Henry Tolchard | Mar 08, 2023 03:04PM UTC

When you drop in ranking due to a single inaccurate forecast (as happens to everyone sooner or later!), what can you learn from these moments?

Will U.S. allies go along with new export controls on China?

By: Walter Frick | Mar 06, 2023 02:34PM UTC

Last fall, the U.S. announced new export controls preventing the sale of certain advanced chips to China—along with the software and machinery required to make them. This is intended to maximize U.S. technological advantage over China. But will the controls work, and will U.S. allies join the effort? 

INFER and UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment launch collaboration

By: INFER Team | Feb 21, 2023 10:34PM UTC

INFER is pleased to announce a collaboration with Cosmic Bazaar, the crowdsourced forecasting program run by the UK’s Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment (PHIA).

INFER's Best of 2022: Congratulations to the season's leaders across various forecasting categories

By: INFER Team | Feb 21, 2023 10:33PM UTC

See who made the Best of 2022 and help us recognize their outstanding contributions.

Learning and improving our forecasts together: crowd forecast change alerts

By: INFER Team | Feb 10, 2023 03:18PM UTC

Crowd forecasting allows you to get signals about events before they happen. We're making it even easier to be alerted to important signals by introducing crowd forecast change alerts – which notify you of sudden shifts in the consensus forecast.

A look back at 2022 and where we’re headed

By: INFER Team | Dec 21, 2022 09:39PM UTC

As the inaugural season of INFER comes to an end, we wanted to take a moment to reflect on some of our accomplishments as a community, our lessons learned, and also give you a glimpse of new initiatives we’re excited to share with you in 2023. 

2023 Pro Forecaster selections begin in December

By: INFER Team | Dec 12, 2022 02:18PM UTC

INFER is pleased to announce that the Pro Forecaster Program will continue into the 2023 season. Up to 100 Pro Forecasters (“Pros”) are being selected for the program, which includes monthly payment for dedicated forecasting and exclusive training and events.

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