The Pub BlogLooking for blog posts from our Foretell archive? Find them here.
INFER forecasters: Don’t expect GPT-5 anytime soon
By: Walter Frick | May 22, 2023 09:03PM UTC
The next generation of OpenAI’s technology isn't likely to arrive this year, according to INFER forecasters as well as analysts tracking AI. In the meantime, though, OpenAI likely has other priorities.
Team Leads cross the finish line on half-year forecasting tournament with teammates
By: INFER Team | May 10, 2023 01:28PM UTC
Last fall, INFER introduced a new Team Lead opportunity for forecasters who were interested in getting others in their community involved in crowd forecasting. Team Leads were tasked with recruiting and leading a team of forecasters in a six-month forecasting tournament that ended in April.
Introducing the INFER mobile app
By: INFER Team | May 08, 2023 07:33PM UTC
Our forecasters have been asking for a mobile app – and we are excited to share that it is now available for INFER. You will now be able to submit forecasts on critical questions to support INFER’s government stakeholders directly from our native app on a phone or tablet.
INFER forecasters: Egypt’s inflation could get worse before it gets better
By: Walter Frick | May 01, 2023 09:31PM UTC
Inflation has been surging in Egypt since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and it shows little sign of abating, according to both experts and INFER forecasters. In fact, it’s probable that Egypt’s inflation problem will get worse.
What’s the future outlook for biofuels?
By: Walter Frick | Apr 19, 2023 05:47PM UTC
The world will need to ramp up its use of biofuels in order to decarbonize transportation, according to the International Energy Agency. But, will that happen? What will contribute to growth in this sector? See what forecasters on INFER are saying about this topic across a range of questions that speak to both biofuels’ short- and long-term potential.
How our 2023 Pro Forecasters earned their spot and welcoming the new Pro All Stars
By: INFER Team | Mar 23, 2023 04:55PM UTC
What to do when a question resolution doesn’t go your way: conducting a post-mortem
By: Henry Tolchard | Mar 08, 2023 03:04PM UTC
When you drop in ranking due to a single inaccurate forecast (as happens to everyone sooner or later!), what can you learn from these moments?
Will U.S. allies go along with new export controls on China?
By: Walter Frick | Mar 06, 2023 02:34PM UTC
Last fall, the U.S. announced new export controls preventing the sale of certain advanced chips to China—along with the software and machinery required to make them. This is intended to maximize U.S. technological advantage over China. But will the controls work, and will U.S. allies join the effort?
INFER and UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment launch collaboration
By: INFER Team | Feb 21, 2023 10:34PM UTC
INFER is pleased to announce a collaboration with Cosmic Bazaar, the crowdsourced forecasting program run by the UK’s Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment (PHIA).
INFER's Best of 2022: Congratulations to the season's leaders across various forecasting categories
By: INFER Team | Feb 21, 2023 10:33PM UTC
See who made the Best of 2022 and help us recognize their outstanding contributions.
Learning and improving our forecasts together: crowd forecast change alerts
By: INFER Team | Feb 10, 2023 03:18PM UTC
Crowd forecasting allows you to get signals about events before they happen. We're making it even easier to be alerted to important signals by introducing crowd forecast change alerts – which notify you of sudden shifts in the consensus forecast.
A look back at 2022 and where we’re headed
By: INFER Team | Dec 21, 2022 09:39PM UTC
As the inaugural season of INFER comes to an end, we wanted to take a moment to reflect on some of our accomplishments as a community, our lessons learned, and also give you a glimpse of new initiatives we’re excited to share with you in 2023.
2023 Pro Forecaster selections begin in December
By: INFER Team | Dec 12, 2022 02:18PM UTC
INFER is pleased to announce that the Pro Forecaster Program will continue into the 2023 season. Up to 100 Pro Forecasters (“Pros”) are being selected for the program, which includes monthly payment for dedicated forecasting and exclusive training and events.
New question release: Monitoring trends in quantum computing
By: Zev Burton | Nov 01, 2022 06:19PM UTC
INFER launched new questions asking about advancements in quantum computing as part of the Global AI Race topic. This post explains why we chose those questions and what the answers suggest about the future direction of AI.
Bias control: Confirmation bias
By: Zev Burton | Oct 27, 2022 05:28PM UTC
In our first blog series on cognitive biases, we dive into confirmation bias: what is it, and how can we avoid it in our forecasts?
A guide to making an initial forecast
By: Henry Tolchard | Oct 26, 2022 07:41PM UTC
Making your first forecast? This guide will provide steps and example prompts that you can use to approach any forecast question for the first time.
EA Tournament participants learned to forecast for a better future
By: Henry Tolchard | Oct 06, 2022 03:39PM UTC
What did EA student groups from universities across the globe learn during INFER's first forecasting tournament? The winning team, many of whom were first-time forecasters, share their thoughts!
New question release: Alternative fuels, impossible foods and thermoplastics
By: Zev Burton | Oct 03, 2022 03:57PM UTC
A new batch of questions has launched in our latest topic, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector. This post discusses why we chose those questions and what the answers suggest about the direction the field is headed in.
Topic brief: Synthetic biology
By: Zev Burton | Sep 20, 2022 07:35PM UTC
With the launch of the new topic, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector, we’ve put together this Topic Brief filled with resources to help you make your forecasts.
Sneak peek: Forecaster training program coming soon; Pros begin this week with an open-source research training
By: INFER Team | Sep 06, 2022 06:52PM UTC
New question release: Funding for biofuels, algae-based fuels, and renewable energy
By: Zev Burton | Sep 06, 2022 04:20PM UTC
The first set of questions just launched in the new topic, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector. This post explains why we selected those questions and what they help to signal about the future of the field.
INFER introduces new topic to assess U.S. competitiveness in synthetic biology, focusing first on the energy sector
By: INFER Team | Aug 19, 2022 05:20PM UTC
INFER has launched a new topic area on synthetic biology to assess how this field will transform U.S. competitiveness and increase national security in the energy sector.
Thoughts from a Pro: How crowd forecasting can benefit public health policy
By: Zev Burton | Aug 16, 2022 03:11PM UTC
In this edition of "Thoughts from a Pro," we caught up with a Pro who submitted the recently-closed PHEIC question, Alex Demarsh!
Monkeypox: The outcome we didn’t expect
By: Zev Burton | Aug 15, 2022 06:35PM UTC
Why were we, as a crowd, trending in the wrong direction on this question? Granted, with a 30% chance of occurring, it’s going to happen three out of ten times, but why wasn’t our forecast higher?
New features: pre-mortems and accuracy comparisons
By: Zev Burton | Jul 15, 2022 01:16PM UTC
Take a look at the development team's new features to improve your forecasting!