Forecasts in Past Week
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Be at the vanguard of forecasting efforts in government
— Fiona Kastel, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation ("3ie")
— Anthony Cordetti, Cambridge Associates
Crowdsourced forecasting is a process that enables a large group of people to combine their individual forecasts into a “crowd” or “consensus” forecast that often generates a more accurate forecast than individual experts.
INFER gets requests from policymakers and analysts about what they need to understand about the future. We then agree on a question that best represents what they want to know. From there, our team goes through a process of “decomposing” that broad question into the individual questions you see on INFER.
Learn more about our decomposition process.
INFER creates regular reports of forecasting outputs for analysts and policymakers to use in their analysis and decisionmaking process. These may come in the form of quarterly updates, or alerts about notable movement in the consensus forecasts.
INFER is led by the non-profit RAND with support from Cultivate Labs.
INFER supports U.S. policymakers in governmental organizations such as the Intelligence Community, the Department of Defense, and the Department of State among others.
By leveraging the power of the crowd, the goal of INFER is to provide early warning and a more diverse perspective about the future to bolster the national security and intelligence of the U.S. and its allies.
If you are a government decisionmaker or analyst interested in working with INFER on a strategic question or issue, or have a community of people who would be interested in making forecasts, contact us at