INFER is a community of researchers, analysts, and passionate forecasters that inform U.S. Government policymaking by generating signals and early warning about the future of science and technology trends and events.

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Learn more about the INFER Program | Apply to be a Paid Pro Forecaster

Upcoming Events

You can join many virtual events hosted regularly by INFER, including Fireside Chats with experts on topics we’re forecasting, and more.

Fireside Chat: The Advent of
“The Synthetic Age”

register now

August 24

1pm ET

For Pro Forecasters only:
Next Gen AI Meetup

August 30

12pm ET

Fireside Chat:
The Global AI Arms Race

Coming in
September

Our mission is to build a collective foresight capability that can provide U.S. Government policymakers with an accurate and nuanced rendering of the future.

Some of the critical issues we're forecasting:

  • Will the U.S. retain its competitive advantage in AI?

  • How will the U.S. tech sector develop over the coming years?

  • How will diplomatic relations evolve and impact the global landscape?

Who should be a forecaster?

  • Professionals in STEM fields and public policy

  • Current and former government personnel

  • Academic researchers and professors

  • University students

  • Passionate forecasters of all disciplines

BECOME A FORECASTER

We believe every major policy decision by the U.S. Government can be bolstered by leveraging the collective foresight of both the Federal workforce and U.S. and global citizens who support the United States.

INFER Public is designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and events. This is the public portion of INFER and is one of multiple forecasting sites to be operated as part of this program.

INFER is supporting U.S. Government policymakers and is run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy.

How INFER Works

Read more about our forecasting platform and how your participation is critical to increase the “wisdom” of our crowd.

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Your forecasts are crucial for making this forecasting platform a success

We need at least 15 minutes a week from you to...

  • Submit your probabilistic forecasts based on news sources or your own experience;

  • Share the rationales of your forecasts to give the context for your thinking and upvote the rationales of other forecasts that you agree with; and

  • When a forecast question is closed, compare your performance with other participants and the consensus to learn where your forecasts can improve.

Participating institutions in our forecasting community

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