Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022 according to the OECD AI Policy Observatory?Make a forecast
In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most AI research publications ranked in the top 10% according to the OECD AI Policy Observatory?Make a forecast
Which country or union will publish the second most AI related patents in 2022 according to the OECD AI Policy Observatory?Make a forecast
Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022?Make a forecast
From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?Make a forecast
Will the U.S. retain its competitive advantage in AI?
How will the U.S. tech sector develop over the coming years?
How will diplomatic relations evolve and impact the global landscape?
Professionals in STEM fields and public policy
Current and former government personnel
Academic researchers and professors
Passionate forecasters of all disciplines
INFER Public is designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and events. This is the public portion of INFER and is one of multiple forecasting sites to be operated as part of this program.
INFER is supporting U.S. Government policymakers and is run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy.How INFER Works
Read more about our forecasting platform and how your participation is critical to increase the “wisdom” of our crowd.view faq
Submit your probabilistic forecasts based on news sources or your own experience;
Share the rationales of your forecasts to give the context for your thinking and upvote the rationales of other forecasts that you agree with; and
When a forecast question is closed, compare your performance with other participants and the consensus to learn where your forecasts can improve.