From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset attribute 500 or more fatalities to the Iran - Israel conflict?Make a forecast
Will the price per chip-hour of Google’s cloud-based Tensor Processing Unit (TPU v4) be greater than $3.22 on January 1, 2023?Make a forecast
Will Google score more wins than any other submitter in the next round of the MLPerf training benchmarking suite?Make a forecast
From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank?Make a forecast
How many total unique AI systems will Baidu and Alibaba submit for the next round of the MLPerf benchmarking suite?Make a forecast
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INFER Public is designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and events. This is the public portion of INFER and is one of multiple forecasting sites to be operated as part of this program.
INFER is supporting U.S. Government policymakers and is run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding has been provided by a grant from Open Philanthropy.How INFER Works
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Submit your probabilistic forecasts based on news sources or your own experience;
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When a forecast question is closed, compare your performance with other participants and the consensus to learn where your forecasts can improve.