Forecasted Questions
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 11, 2024 07:58AM UTC
(8 days ago)
May 11, 2024 07:58AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 1% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 99% | -4% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 07:55PM UTC
(6 days ago)
May 13, 2024 07:55PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 65% | 55% | +10% | +0% |
| No | 35% | 45% | -10% | +0% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(6 days ago)
May 13, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 56% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 40% | 44% | -4% | +0% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(6 days ago)
May 13, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024 | Aug 13, 2024 | 7% | +7% | +0% |
| No | 86% | May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024 | Aug 13, 2024 | 93% | -7% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(5 days ago)
May 14, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | May 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025 | Aug 14, 2024 | 8% | +17% | -2% |
| No | 75% | May 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025 | Aug 14, 2024 | 92% | -17% | +2% |
Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 03:29PM UTC
(5 days ago)
May 14, 2024 03:29PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 86% | 81% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 14% | 19% | -5% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 03:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)
May 14, 2024 03:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | May 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025 | Aug 14, 2024 | 6% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 90% | May 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025 | Aug 14, 2024 | 94% | -4% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 16, 2024 11:23AM UTC
(3 days ago)
May 16, 2024 11:23AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 10% | +25% | +2% |
| No | 65% | 90% | -25% | -2% |