Zeroing
-0.05562
Relative Brier Score
96
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 43 | 421 | 96 | 599 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 22 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 32 | 73 | 38 | 90 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 9 | 55 | 14 | 75 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
2%
(-12%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
96%
(+12%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
Narrowing.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13%
(-2%)
Yes
Apr 19, 2024 to Oct 19, 2024
87%
(+2%)
No
Apr 19, 2024 to Oct 19, 2024
Adjusting.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+2%)
Less than or equal to 499
2%
(-2%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Updating. Only 6 weeks to go.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(+14%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
80%
(-14%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
Adding uncertainty in light of the recent escalation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+23%)
Yes
10%
(-23%)
No
Upping after recent escalation (Iran attacked Israel with drones and missiles).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(+24%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
Upping after the recent escalation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(+46%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
50%
(-46%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
With the recent airstrike on Israel the chances of a war seem considerably heightened now.
Files
Zeroing