Confirmed previous forecast
-0.163449
Relative Brier Score
112
Forecasts
16
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 16 | 30 | 431 | 112 | 615 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 22 |
| Questions Forecasted | 16 | 29 | 73 | 38 | 90 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 7 | 56 | 16 | 77 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
8%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
90%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
96%
(+4%)
Less than or equal to 49
4%
(-4%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Last month left.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(+2%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
16%
(-1%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Slight adjustment based on crowd movement.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-2%)
Yes
96%
(+2%)
No
Not much time left. An announcement can of course come without any prior notice.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kuwait
4%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
9%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files