INFER Public

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 04:28PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	82%	-2%	+2%
No	20%	18%	+2%	-2%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 11, 2024 07:40AM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	12%	+3%	-6%
No	85%	88%	-3%	+6%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 11, 2024 07:43AM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	1%	0%	+1%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	10%	4%	+6%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	88%	95%	-7%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 07:55PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	65%	53%	+12%	-2%
No	35%	47%	-12%	+2%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	56%	+4%	+0%
No	40%	44%	-4%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024	Aug 13, 2024	7%	+7%	+0%
No	86%	May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024	Aug 13, 2024	93%	-7%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	May 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025	Aug 14, 2024	7%	+18%	-3%
No	75%	May 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025	Aug 14, 2024	93%	-18%	+3%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 03:29PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	86%	80%	+6%	-1%
No	14%	20%	-6%	+1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 03:30PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	May 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025	Aug 14, 2024	7%	+3%	+1%
No	90%	May 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025	Aug 14, 2024	93%	-3%	-1%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 16, 2024 11:23AM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	10%	+25%	+2%
No	65%	90%	-25%	-2%

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