142nd
Accuracy Rank

DKC

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0.67

Relative Brier Score

736

Forecasts

542

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 21 64 790 736 1697
Comments 0 10 214 185 717
Questions Forecasted 20 24 53 48 78
Upvotes on Comments By This User 11 33 612 542 1272
 Definitions
New Prediction

I think Saudi Arabia is ready, but their hands are tied with the Israel/Hamas war going on in Gaza. And I don't see that being resolved in the next month.

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New Prediction

Okay, so I was wrong about no airline bothering with breaking ground on SAF during the holiday season:)

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/28/transatlantic-flight-sustainable-jet-fuel-virgin-atlantic-saf


But I continue to believe Cemvita won't have the SAF ready before the end of the year.

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New Prediction

Does not appear he will even be on the ballot.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-29/pakistani-court-overturns-sharif-s-conviction-in-one-graft-case

FTA:

Pakistan’s convicted leader Imran Khan will quit as the head of his political party while rival Nawaz Sharif got a conviction overturned in separate fates for the nation’s top two politicians months before national elections.

Khan won’t stand for Chairman of his Tehreek-e-Insaf in party elections as he may be disqualified from holding such a post because of conviction in a corruption case, Ali Zafar, a senior leader from Khan’s party, told reporters on Wednesday.


and...

https://www.dawn.com/news/1793565

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New Prediction

Affirming.

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New Prediction

Moving up a few points with the increase in price in the last week. It is up to 370.5 in the last week (as of 28 Nov.)

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New Prediction
DKC
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (+0%)
2023 Q2
0% (+0%)
2023 Q3
0% (+0%)
2023 Q4
0% (+0%)
2024 Q1
1% (+0%)
2024 Q2

Affirming

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New Prediction

Affirming. Possible but unlikely.

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New Prediction
DKC
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (+0%)
Yes
99% (+0%)
No

Alot in the news the last few days. Xi seems to making a full campaign to convince some that he is not a war-monger and only wants peace.


1) A kerfuffle between China and Australia:

https://apnews.com/article/australia-china-sea-liu-navy-warships-sydney-452f4933a3d51f1e3daf6ca272a9d66e

FTA:

CANBERRA, Australia (AP) — A visiting Chinese official on Tuesday warned Australia to act with “great prudence” in deploying warships in the South China Sea after a recent confrontation between the two navies.


Liu Jianchao, the Chinese Communist Party’s international minister, gave the warning while speaking at a Sydney university during a trip that paves the way for President Xi Jinping’s Australian visit, expected to take place next year.


Bilateral relations had been improving recently, but took a downturn when Australia accused the Chinese destroyer CNS Ningbo of injuring Australian navy divers with sonar pulses in Japanese waters on Nov. 14. Australia said China disregarded a safety warning to keep away from the Australian frigate HMAS Toowoomba.


Liu reiterated China’s position that the encounter happened outside Japanese territorial waters and that the Chinese warship caused no harm.


2) But a statement that China wants to renew and strengthen ties with Australia

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-28/china-wants-to-renew-australia-defense-ties-senior-envoy-says

FTA:

China wants to renew its defense relations with Australia, senior diplomat Liu Jianchao said on a visit to Sydney, a sign that a recent tense military encounter likely won’t derail an improvement of overall ties.


“I believe it’s very important and China is also very proactive in resuming such a relationship based on mutual respect and mutual benefit,” Liu, the head of the Communist Party’s International Department, told reporters in Sydney on Tuesday.


Liu did acknowledge the two countries have a ways to go to iron out the differences their militaries have, saying that “we need not deny it but there are some possible concerns on both sides.”


3. And a dismissal that Australia needs to worry about China

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3243141/china-not-targeting-australias-pacific-island-ties-says-senior-communist-party-official

FTA: 

China does not aim to challenge Australia’s influence among the Pacific Islands, a senior Chinese official in charge of Communist Party diplomacy said in Sydney on Tuesday, amid renewed efforts to improve relations between the two countries.

“China has no intention of seeking any sphere of influence. We respect the role and the influence of Australia in the Pacific island countries,” Liu Jianchao said in a speech to the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney.

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New Prediction

Affirming, thanks to @martinsluis for the updated numbers.

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