67th
Accuracy Rank

DKC

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0.002351

Relative Brier Score

264

Forecasts

208

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 7 34 630 264 2028
Comments 0 6 124 53 780
Questions Forecasted 7 11 45 22 87
Upvotes on Comments By This User 2 23 486 208 1530
 Definitions
New Prediction

Houthis still playing offense.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/houthi-rebels-target-u-s-flagged-container-ship-off-coast-of-yemen

FTA:

Yemen’s Houthi rebels targeted United States-flagged container ship in the Gulf of Aden on Tuesday, officials said, the latest assault by the group on the crucial maritime trade route.


The captain of the ship reported an explosion in close proximity to the vessel off the coast of Nishtun, Yemen, close to the country’s border with Oman, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said. The Joint Maritime Information Center, which is overseen by the U.S. Navy, identified the ship as the Maersk Sentosa.


The explosion took place in the farthest reaches of the waterway earlier targeted by the rebels, the center said.

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New Prediction
DKC
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
0% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania

IMHO, the timeline is too long to be below .05 for all of these. Affirming.

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New Prediction
DKC
made their 21st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No

Affirming at <.05

The Junta appears on its way out. But it will take awhile to completely shut them down I  think.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/tnla-captures-shan-state-town-07112024065045.html


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New Prediction
DKC
made their 30th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)

This is a "conservative and hawkish" news source according to Wikipedia so salt to taste.


https://www.jns.org/under-cover-of-its-proxy-war-against-israel-irans-nuclear-program-is-rushing-ahead/

FTA:

Iran appears to be exploiting the ongoing war of attrition between its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, and Israel to make rapid progress on its nuclear program. 

...

Ephraim Asculai, a former senior official at the Israel Atomic Energy Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), recently provided a detailed analysis of Iran’s advancements in uranium enrichment. 

Speaking to journalists on a call organized on July 3 by the Jerusalem Press Club, he explained, “I can say very briefly that the capacity of Iran to enrich uranium to weapons grade, which is 90% enrichment, is multiplied by many, many times.” 

Asculai added that Iran now possesses, according to data provided by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, the capability to enrich uranium to weapons-grade level within a few weeks, in quantities that would be enough for “several nuclear warheads.”

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New Prediction

Dropping back down. While it was mentioned last month there doesn't appear to be an appetite to follow through with it.

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New Prediction
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Agree on this one too.
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New Prediction
DKC
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
16% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
8% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan

Should be an interesting election in Moldova...

The pro-Russia group doesn't want to come out against pro-Europe movement because of its popularity so they have to find another excuse.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/moldovas-pro-russia-socialists-field-unified-opposition-candidate-in-presidential-poll/

FTA:

Moldova’s Socialists, the ex-Soviet state’s largest opposition party, put forward a dismissed prosecutor general as a “unified opposition” candidate on Monday (8 July) to challenge pro-European incumbent Maia Sandu in an October presidential election.


Sandu, who has made securing European Union membership the cornerstone of her policies, is seeking a second mandate in a poll held alongside a referendum on joining the 27-nation bloc.


The pro-Russia Socialists say they do not oppose the campaign for European integration, but accuse Sandu of using the referendum as a vehicle to win the election.

...

There was no indication whether Moldova’s other major opposition grouping, led by fugitive business magnate Ilan Shor, would back Stoianoglo.


Shor, sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison last year for mass fraud, lives in Russia and heads the “Victory” electoral bloc made up of several pro-Moscow groups.

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New Prediction
DKC
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
Kharkiv
0% (0%)
Kyiv
0% (0%)
Odesa

Affirming 3% Kharkiv, .4% Kyiv, and .4% Odesa. 

I continue to think Putin accomplished what he wanted in the Kharkiv Oblast. Would he like Kharkiv? Sure, but now is not the time. Urban warfare is much much more difficult. Especially now that Ukraine has weapons again. It appears Putin will focus on destroying infrastructure in advance of winter. He has time to wait to see who wins the USA election and how strongly that candidate will support NATO and Ukraine.

From Wikipedia:

Fighting in urban areas negates the advantages that one side may have over the other in armor, heavy artillery, or air support. Ambushes laid down by small groups of soldiers with handheld anti-tank weapons can destroy entire columns of modern armor (as in the First Battle of Grozny), while artillery and air support can be severely reduced if the "superior" party wants to limit civilian casualties as much as possible, but the defending party does not (or even uses civilians as human shields).


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New Prediction

I remain at .4

If this turns out to be true, I don't see it helping.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-houthis-cruise-missiles-russia-yemen-1919434

FTA:

There are indications that Russian President Vladimir Putin is considering supplying the Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthi movement with anti-ship ballistic cruise missiles, Middle East Eye (MEE)—citing an unnamed senior U.S. official—reported on Saturday.


Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin via email to request comment.


Moscow has been coordinating with the Houthis as part of its growing alignment with Iran, with the Kremlin seeking new and deeper alliances among anti-Western powers following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

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New Prediction
DKC
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (+1%)
Estonia
0% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania

Moving up 1% on Estonia. 

Somehow I missed this incident in May. I heard about it on a podcast today and went back to look for it.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-putin-border-provocation-estonia-rings-new-alarm-bells-baltics/

FTA:

Just a day after the the Kremlin's defense ministry deleted a threat to redraw borders in the Baltic Sea earlier this week, Russian border guards removed more than 20 buoys on the Narva River — a waterway along the Estonian-Russian border. EU leaders condemned the move as an act of provocative behavior by Russia with its neighbors.

“This border incident is part of a broader pattern of hybrid actions by Russia, including on its maritime and land borders in the Baltic Sea region,” the EU's chief diplomat Josep Borrell said in a statement Friday.

...

"Since 2023, Russia does not agree with the Estonian positions regarding the placement of the buoys. We decided to install floating signs for the summer season according to the agreement of 2022, so they are necessary to avoid navigational errors," Purgel said.


This year, Russia reported that it does not agree with the locations of approximately half of the 250 border buoys. Estonia installed the buoys following the treaty on the state border and the agreement on the placement of buoys concluded between the border services in 2022. The first 50 buoys were installed on May 13, and Russia removed about half of them.  


And then there is this...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-21/lines-at-border-with-russia-leave-estonia-mulling-halt-to-travel

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