Forecasted Questions
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
As of Apr 30, 2024 11:49PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 31, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024 | Apr 30, 2024 | 3% | +2% | +1% |
| No | 95% | Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024 | Apr 30, 2024 | 97% | -2% | -1% |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
As of May 3, 2024 04:59PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 03, 2024 04:59PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Apr 03, 2024 04:59PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | Apr 3, 2024 to Oct 3, 2024 | May 3, 2024 | 20% | -12% | +8% |
| No | 92% | Apr 3, 2024 to Oct 3, 2024 | May 3, 2024 | 80% | +12% | -8% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
As of May 14, 2024 12:34AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2024 12:34AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Apr 14, 2024 12:34AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 | May 14, 2024 | 16% | +59% | -3% |
| No | 25% | Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 | May 14, 2024 | 84% | -59% | +3% |