Loki

About:

I have some previous forecasting experience, and like maths, philosophy and effective altruism.
I run a monthly forecasting newsletter, available here: https://forecasting.substack.com/, and have written & maintain a forecast aggregator at https://metaforecast.org
Part of the legendary Samotsvey Forecasting team, which won the first two seasons overwhelmingly. Note: I will generally not be updating my forecasts, or participating in the 2022 season, on account of ARLIS paying too little.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2020 04:26PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 20, 2020 09:44PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 21, 2020 04:40PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 2% Answer was correct
Between 2% and 3.5%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 5% Answer was incorrect
More than 5% but less than or equal to 6.5% Answer was incorrect
More than 6.5% Answer was incorrect

What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 21, 2020 04:58PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 0.3 Answer was incorrect
Between 0.3 and 0.6, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 0.6 but less than or equal to 0.9 Answer was incorrect
More than 0.9 but less than or equal to 1.2 Answer was correct
More than 1.2 Answer was incorrect

Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 28, 2020 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2020 04:56PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 15, 2020 02:23PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $200 million Answer was incorrect
Between $200 million and $300 million, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $300 million but less than or equal to $400 million Answer was incorrect
More than $400 million but less than or equal to $500 million Answer was correct
More than $500 million Answer was incorrect

How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 25, 2021 06:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 29, 2020 02:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 5,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500 Answer was correct
More than12,500 Answer was incorrect

How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 29, 2020 03:15PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $200 million Answer was correct
More than $200 million but less than or equal to $500 million Answer was incorrect
Between $500 million and $800 million, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $800 million but less than or equal to $1.1 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $1.1 billion Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 29, 2020 03:43PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 06, 2020 04:27PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 30% Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 33%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 33% but less than or equal to 36% Answer was correct
More than 36% but less than or equal to 39% Answer was incorrect
More than 39% Answer was incorrect
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