Confirmed previous forecast
-0.225117
Relative Brier Score
124
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 9 | 398 | 124 | 1609 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 61 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 8 | 50 | 21 | 128 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 13, 2024 to Jan 13, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Placing initial 7 to 3 forecast by crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Less than 24%
15%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
62%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
21%
More than or equal to 28%
According to data 2023 was the first year Americas was >25%. YoY varies roughly between +-3%-points. It seems Asia-Pacific and Americas eat each other's share, Americas having more upswings recently.
Initial forecast on the upside, but I leave nominal change for surprises and natural swings. Still have to do deeper understanding of politics and tariffs etc. on this.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Jul 3, 2024 to Jan 3, 2025
99%
(+1%)
No
Jul 3, 2024 to Jan 3, 2025
Update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(-2%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(+2%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Update
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There are many good arguments in comments over age, instability etc. to give maybe 1-6% chance to "yes". But I'm going to put bias towards the status quo. The centralization of power Putin has been able to amass places lot of difficulty on any insurgency. He's also started to establish an axis of evil with middle east, china, africa and north korea to create legitimacy abroad. There would need to be more signs of cracks appearing in public sentiment, or more direct impact. Probably then too late for me to chance the forecast though. Also if his health was failing, I would wager he can continue his regime from bed using proxys and body doubles.
Why might you be wrong?
I'm making a biased gaming move.