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When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2022 11:49AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before January 1, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022		Answer was correct
Between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Not before October 1, 2022		Answer was incorrect

Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 15, 2022 03:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2022 11:49AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies?

As of Jul 11, 2022 06:46AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 29, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 11, 2022 06:46AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?

As of Aug 25, 2022 01:12PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2022 01:12PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Aug 25, 2022 01:16PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2022 01:16PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2022 03:46PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, for both manufacturing and design		Answer was incorrect
Yes, for only manufacturing		Answer was correct
Yes, for only design		Answer was incorrect
No		Answer was incorrect

Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 02, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2022 05:37AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2022 02:07PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 3		Answer was correct
Between 3 and 5, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between 6 and 7, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between 8 and 10, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 10		Answer was incorrect

What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2022 02:19PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $5 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $5 billion but less than or equal to $6 billion		Answer was correct
Between $6 billion and $7 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between $7 billion and $8 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $8 billion		Answer was incorrect

By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2022 02:29PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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