74th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:
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0.590856

Relative Brier Score

196

Forecasts

24

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 14 44 679 196 1978
Comments 0 4 39 11 135
Questions Forecasted 14 40 107 51 227
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 7 109 24 266
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8% (0%)
Yes
May 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2024
92% (0%)
No
May 22, 2024 to Nov 22, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
May 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
97% (0%)
No
May 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
97% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024
98%
No
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024

Starting to forecast this question. Given the circumstances and the considerable reduction of tensions from the highs we saw a month ago, I'm starting low.

Files
New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (-2%)
Yes
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024
99% (+2%)
No
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024

Reducing as tensions have scaled down

Files
New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9% (+4%)
Yes
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024
91% (-4%)
No
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024

Going a bit higher due to the rationale provided by @DKC, here: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/129549


Files
New Prediction
ansantillan
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
May 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2024
95% (0%)
No
May 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2024

Confirmed previous forecast

Files
Files
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