100th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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2024 Season Stats

0.30556

Relative Brier Score

262

Forecasts

34

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 3 29 584 262 2044
Comments 0 1 27 14 138
Questions Forecasted 3 28 98 51 227
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 2 80 34 276
 Definitions
New Prediction

Reducing considerably as there are no developments.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
ansantillan made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
Jul 22, 2024 to Jul 22, 2025
97% (0%)
No
Jul 22, 2024 to Jul 22, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
ansantillan made their 10th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Jul 20, 2024 to Jan 20, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Jul 20, 2024 to Jan 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
ansantillan made their 7th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25% (0%)
Yes
Jul 20, 2024 to Jul 20, 2025
75% (0%)
No
Jul 20, 2024 to Jul 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
ansantillan made their 8th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (0%)
Yes
Jul 20, 2024 to Jan 20, 2025
80% (0%)
No
Jul 20, 2024 to Jan 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
ansantillan made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Jul 20, 2024 to Jan 20, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Jul 20, 2024 to Jan 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
ansantillan made their 11th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Jul 20, 2024 to Jan 20, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Jul 20, 2024 to Jan 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
ansantillan made their 9th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
Jul 20, 2024 to Jan 20, 2025
97% (0%)
No
Jul 20, 2024 to Jan 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
ansantillan made their 9th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Jul 18, 2024 to Jan 18, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Jul 18, 2024 to Jan 18, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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