44th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 31, 2024 12:07AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 3%
No 98% 97%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 31, 2024 12:07AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024 Jun 30, 2024 0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 31, 2024 12:38AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 5%
No 99% 95%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 02, 2024 01:50AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 4%
No 95% 96%

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 04, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
2023 Q2 0% 0%
2023 Q3 0% 0%
2023 Q4 0% 0%
2024 Q1 0% 1%
2024 Q2 0% 1%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 05, 2024 12:05AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Apr 5, 2024 to Oct 5, 2024 May 5, 2024 16%
No 99% Apr 5, 2024 to Oct 5, 2024 May 5, 2024 84%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 07, 2024 12:15AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 3%
No 98% 97%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 07, 2024 12:15AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 4%
No 95% 96%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 07, 2024 12:16AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 49 95% 90%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive 5% 9%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive 0% 0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive 0% 0%
More than or equal to 200 0% 0%

Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(3 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 07, 2024 12:17AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
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