74th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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Forecasted Questions
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How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 08, 2021 07:29PM UTC
(2 years ago)

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 19, 2021 03:49PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 40% 35%

How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 01, 2021 03:57PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 01, 2021 08:49PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than -0.25 3% 14%
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive 35% 31%
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 42% 33%
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 20% 17%
More than 0.5 0% 4%

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 08, 2021 04:11PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 26, 2022 09:49PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Apple 88% 48%
Microsoft 12% 22%
Alphabet (Google) 0% 13%
Amazon 0% 10%
Tesla 0% 3%
Meta (Facebook) 0% 1%
Other 0% 2%

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 21, 2022 10:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 14% 0% 3%
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive 2% 12%
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% 10% 31%
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% 66% 40%
More than 20% 22% 14%

How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 26, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 29, 2022 12:10AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 31, 2022 03:53PM UTC
(2 years ago)
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