74th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 02:12AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 Jul 30, 2024 0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 02:12AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 4%
No 99% 96%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 75% 56%
No 25% 44%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 03, 2024 05:41AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 4%
No 96% 96%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 03, 2024 05:12PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 Jun 3, 2024 18%
No 99% May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 Jun 3, 2024 82%

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 04, 2024 05:22PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
2023 Q2 0% 0%
2023 Q3 0% 0%
2023 Q4 0% 0%
2024 Q1 0% 1%
2024 Q2 0% 1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 04, 2024 05:26PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 2% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 4% 11%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 07, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 2%
No 98% 98%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 07, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 4%
No 98% 96%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 07, 2024 02:02AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 49 100% 95%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive 0% 4%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive 0% 0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive 0% 0%
More than or equal to 200 0% 0%
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