74th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 20, 2024 04:17PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 1% 1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 2% 4%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 97% 95%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 21, 2024 06:15AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Apr 21, 2024 to Apr 21, 2025 Jul 21, 2024 6%
No 97% Apr 21, 2024 to Apr 21, 2025 Jul 21, 2024 94%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 21, 2024 06:16AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 25% 81%
No 75% 19%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 21, 2024 06:17AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024 May 21, 2024 3%
No 97% Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024 May 21, 2024 97%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 21, 2024 06:28AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 8% Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024 May 21, 2024 5%
No 92% Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024 May 21, 2024 95%

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 22, 2024 02:03AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 22, 2024 02:04AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 27, 2024 04:36PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 15% Apr 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 May 27, 2024 21%
No 85% Apr 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 May 27, 2024 79%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 27, 2024 04:37PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 7% Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024 May 27, 2024 16%
No 93% Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024 May 27, 2024 84%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 27, 2024 04:39PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 13% Apr 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Jul 27, 2024 13%
No 87% Apr 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Jul 27, 2024 87%
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