80th
Accuracy Rank

gcahlik

About:

Former Investigative Analyst for a Federal agency, now working as a trade compliance specialist for a nonprofit research and development institute.

Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies graduate, MA International Relations, Russian and Eurasian studies concentration. University of Texas at San Antonio graduate, BA Economics, Political Science, minor in Russian

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 29, 2024 01:18PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 15% 4%
No 85% 96%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 29, 2024 01:18PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024 Jul 29, 2024 0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 29, 2024 01:18PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 2%
No 99% 98%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 29, 2024 01:18PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024 May 29, 2024 4%
No 99% Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024 May 29, 2024 96%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 29, 2024 01:18PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024 May 29, 2024 3%
No 100% Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024 May 29, 2024 97%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 29, 2024 01:19PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 10% Apr 29, 2024 to May 29, 2024 May 29, 2024 6%
No 90% Apr 29, 2024 to May 29, 2024 May 29, 2024 94%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 29, 2024 01:19PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 499 99% 99%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive 1% 1%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive 0% 0%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive 0% 0%
More than or equal to 2000 0% 0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 10:05PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 0% 14%
Armenia 0% 1%
Georgia 0% 8%
Kazakhstan 0% 2%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 04, 2024 02:51PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 65% 55%
No 35% 45%

Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 05, 2024 06:30PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 2%
No 80% 98%
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