49th
Accuracy Rank

gcahlik

About:

Former Investigative Analyst for a Federal agency, now working as a trade compliance specialist for a nonprofit research and development institute.

Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies graduate, MA International Relations, Russian and Eurasian studies concentration. University of Texas at San Antonio graduate, BA Economics, Political Science, minor in Russian

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2023 05:35PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 11% 4%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 89% 95%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 21, 2024 11:40PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 8%
No 80% 92%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 day from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 24, 2024 04:15AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%

Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 day from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 24, 2024 04:15AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 24, 2024 04:15AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 5% 8%
Su-35 fighter jets 0% 12%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 24, 2024 04:16AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 3%
No 95% 97%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 24, 2024 04:16AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 1% 2%
Oman 1% 2%
Qatar 1% 2%
Saudi Arabia 1% 5%
Tunisia 1% 1%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 24, 2024 04:17AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 5%
No 95% 95%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 24, 2024 04:17AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 24, 2024 04:17AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 5%
No 90% 95%
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