Forecasted Questions
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 10, 2021 02:22PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 10, 2021 02:22PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 10, 2021 08:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 10, 2021 08:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 2% | 5% | 7% | -2% | -1% |
| Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 12% | 23% | -11% | -2% |
| More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 40% | 33% | +7% | -1% |
| More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 23% | 21% | +2% | +0% |
| More than 8% | 20% | 16% | +4% | +3% |
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2022 11:22PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 31, 2022 11:22PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 25% | 48% | -23% | +17% |
| Microsoft | 15% | 22% | -7% | +6% |
| Alphabet (Google) | 35% | 13% | +22% | -1% |
| Amazon | 25% | 10% | +15% | -8% |
| Tesla | 0% | 3% | -3% | -5% |
| Meta (Facebook) | 0% | 1% | -1% | -6% |
| Other | 0% | 2% | -2% | -2% |
How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2022 11:08PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 11:08PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 05, 2022 02:33AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 05, 2022 02:33AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2022 07:25PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Sep 30, 2022 07:25PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intel | 45% | 16% | +29% | -9% |
| Samsung | 50% | 53% | -3% | -11% |
| TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) | 5% | 30% | -25% | +20% |
| Other | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the United States in 2022?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2022 03:22PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Nov 30, 2022 03:22PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 40% | 40% | 51% | -11% | -4% |
| More than or equal to 40% but less than 50% | 55% | 38% | +17% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 50% but less than 60% | 5% | 10% | -5% | +5% |
| More than or equal to 60% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in China in 2022?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2022 03:24PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 29, 2022 03:24PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 5% | 15% | 5% | +10% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 5% but less than 7% | 65% | 73% | -8% | +3% |
| More than or equal to 7% | 20% | 22% | -2% | -4% |
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the European Union and United Kingdom in 2022?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2022 03:57PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 29, 2022 03:57PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 7% | 20% | 43% | -23% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 7% but less than 10% | 70% | 53% | +17% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 10% | 10% | 4% | +6% | +0% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
As of Feb 29, 2024 02:39AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2024 02:39AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 29, 2024 02:39AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Jan 29, 2024 to Jul 29, 2024 | Feb 29, 2024 | 10% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 90% | Jan 29, 2024 to Jul 29, 2024 | Feb 29, 2024 | 90% | +0% | +1% |