johnnycaffeine

Recent decline in Nvidia relative to Apple and Microsoft. 

Matching the Crowd for now. I've been wrong about how long this conflict would last. I don't think we'll see normalization until the active conflict draws to a close. 

I'll get a little closer to the Crowd, but I'm still rather skeptical we're likely to see this, for these reasons based on my research:

1. Israel has been a good enough job grinding down Hezbollah without needing to declare war. 

2. Hezbollah has not quite given Israel the pretext it needs to declare war.

3. Israel is still bogged down in Gaza, and its generals are not keen on a two-front war.

4. Hezbollah for its part doesn't want to get destroyed by Israel.

Moving this down to 50/50 based on a careful re-reading of the Resolution Criteria, which I now realize is stricter than I originally thought. For example, under certain circumstances the clock gets restarted if there are violations of the agreement. Of course, overlapping unilateral ceasefires also count, so in some ways this also has some generous ways of getting to Yes.

The Crowd's 0% is too low. I think 1% per quarter seems fair, at least for now. You have actuarial tables plus a little extra.