30th
Accuracy Rank

johnnycaffeine

About:
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-0.061

Relative Brier Score

130

Forecasts

42

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 7 21 535 130 1052
Comments 0 0 91 23 260
Questions Forecasted 7 21 86 32 160
Upvotes on Comments By This User 2 3 236 42 430
 Definitions
New Prediction

There's not much time left in this.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
johnnycaffeine
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0% (0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
0% (-2%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
100% (+2%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 3000

Never thought I'd say this, but wow I miss the old ACLED dashboard. 

Solidly in the 2250-2999 bin now, so going all in. 

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New Prediction

I will bet that the news of Benny Gantz threatening to quit the war cabinet is speeding things up a bit. 

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New Prediction
johnnycaffeine
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (-15%)
Yes
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024
95% (+15%)
No
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024

Back down a bit here, based on some good points from @cmeinel and @ian 

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New Prediction
johnnycaffeine
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (-9%)
Yes
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024
99% (+9%)
No
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024

These odds have greatly gone down. I listened to a talk from CIS yesterday (here) which helped to clarify things. Basically Iran's position is stronger in the wake the Gaza war, and we know Iran and the US are talking through back channels. So this seems less likely now than it was.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction

My reasoning aligns with @Cloudwood here. From a purely business standpoint, Microsoft would be making a mistake if it cut itself off from some of the best brains in China. As the NYT article from the background puts it, they can just have the researchers in China do stuff that's not politically sensitive. So it then becomes a question of pressure from the US government. 

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New Prediction

As far as I know this remains something Huawei will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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