There's not much time left in this.
-1.151334
Relative Brier Score
1053
Forecasts
430
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 22 | 535 | 131 | 1053 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 91 | 23 | 260 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 21 | 86 | 32 | 160 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 3 | 232 | 42 | 430 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
EA College Tournament,
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Yes
98%
(+3%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(-2%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
100%
(+2%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
Never thought I'd say this, but wow I miss the old ACLED dashboard.
Solidly in the 2250-2999 bin now, so going all in.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(+6%)
Yes
35%
(-6%)
No
I will bet that the news of Benny Gantz threatening to quit the war cabinet is speeding things up a bit.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(-15%)
Yes
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024
95%
(+15%)
No
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024
Back down a bit here, based on some good points from @cmeinel and @ian
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-9%)
Yes
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024
99%
(+9%)
No
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024
These odds have greatly gone down. I listened to a talk from CIS yesterday (here) which helped to clarify things. Basically Iran's position is stronger in the wake the Gaza war, and we know Iran and the US are talking through back channels. So this seems less likely now than it was.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
My reasoning aligns with @Cloudwood here. From a purely business standpoint, Microsoft would be making a mistake if it cut itself off from some of the best brains in China. As the NYT article from the background puts it, they can just have the researchers in China do stuff that's not politically sensitive. So it then becomes a question of pressure from the US government.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
As far as I know this remains something Huawei will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into.
Files
I've probably been reading too much, but I'm not sure it's quite zero