As far as I know this remains something Huawei will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into.
0.210789
Relative Brier Score
313
Forecasts
129
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
11%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+4%)
Yes
May 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2024
95%
(-4%)
No
May 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2024
I missed the fact that they Crowd has gone up on this. Definitely agreed. With the fact that the Gaza war is almost certainly closer to the end than the beginning, plus the increased rivalry with Iran pushing Saudi Arabia closer to Israel over time, these odds are going up.
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
97%
(+1%)
No
So far despite the rhetoric Iran has behaved fairly rationally as far as I can tell. So this makes it a bit more unlikely that they leave the JCPOA than it seemed a few weeks ago.
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024
90%
No
Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024
The geopolitical reality is that it's going to be hard to Israel to do this without US support.
Files
My reasoning aligns with @Cloudwood here. From a purely business standpoint, Microsoft would be making a mistake if it cut itself off from some of the best brains in China. As the NYT article from the background puts it, they can just have the researchers in China do stuff that's not politically sensitive. So it then becomes a question of pressure from the US government.