86th
Accuracy Rank

mollygh

Molly Hickman
About:
Show more

0.002

Relative Brier Score

1

Forecasts

3

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 1 44 1 159
Comments 0 1 42 1 86
Questions Forecasted 0 1 12 3 35
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 3 73 3 125
 Definitions
New Badge
mollygh
earned a new badge:

Upvotes Received

New Badge
mollygh
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

After only an hour of reading, here are some numbers I've come up with. These are very tenuous -- I bet they'll move a lot as I learn more:

Ways that Ariel Henry could cease to be president (or acting president) through an irregular transition ("yes" resolution):

  • (A1) Coup: 15%
  • (A2) Assassination: 5%
  • (A3) Ambiguous / U.S. govt sours on Henry: 8%
  • (A4) Gangs form quasi-state? (It seems like gangs "control" ~60% of the country right now? Fuzzy on what this would mean, but video at [1] mentioned it): 10%

(A3) and (A4) aren't mutually exclusive.

Ways that Henry could stay president OR leave office in a normal way ("no" resolution):

  • (B1) Election (widely accepted as legitimate): 3%
  • (B2) Resignation: 2%
  • (B3) ~No change from what's happening currently, i.e. still president: 25%

That leaves ~30% for outcomes I haven't thought of!

----

The Fragile [read: Failed] State Index from Fund for Peace ranks Haiti 11th, with Myanmar on one side (10th) and Guinea on the other. Its score has gotten higher (worse) for three years in a row. [2]

[1] https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/haitis-troubled-path-development

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index

Files
New Prediction

"The economic sanctions have been extended successively for six months at a time since July 2016." [1]  c/o @sebawi

They renewed on July 26 and January 13 [2] this year. I suppose that they'll do the same ~January 13 this year. It seems there's some question of whether Hungary will stop the renewal (see @A19 rationale).

I suppose sanctions could be left to expire because of something silly and bureaucratic -- they might let it expire and then renew it, like, in February, and that would still result in a "yes" resolution.

[1] Economic sanctions: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/#economic

[2] Timeline: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/history-restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/

Files
New Prediction
mollygh
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
6% (+3%)
Less than $5 billion
27% (+1%)
More than $5 billion but less than or equal to $6 billion
59% (+4%)
Between $6 billion and $7 billion, inclusive
7% (-8%)
Between $7 billion and $8 billion, inclusive
1% (+0%)
More than $8 billion

There are September data now (thanks again @RyanBeck for making your code public): $4.77 billion for Jan through Sep 2022, 10.9% less than Jan-Sep 2021. If that just were to keep up, there would be ~$6.46 billion (2021 was $7.25 billion). I think things have gotten worse for China since September, but third bin still looks pretty good. 1:2 odds of landing below $6 billion seems right to me.

Files
New Prediction
mollygh
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
54% (+33%)
Less than 10
26% (-10%)
More than or equal to 10 but less than 15
11% (-19%)
More than or equal to 15 but less than 20
9% (-4%)
More than or equal to 20

I wish I'd quit this question in September (comment) but since it's almost over...

Right now it's 4.917395411 commits (somehow - not sure how you have fractions of commits). Percentage is ~10.7%. Uncheck "Estimate 2022 values" and download as CSV. In 2021 EU27 had 23.02 commits (10.8%).

> Using the 439 topic labels identified by Gonzalez et al. – as well as the topics “machine learning”, “deep learning”, and “artificial intelligence” – GitHub provides with a list of public projects containing AI code. GitHub updates the list of public AI projects on a quarterly basis, which allows to capture trends in AI software development over time. (https://oecd.ai/en/github)

I suspect that's part of why all the numbers for 2022 are fairly low right now; they won't have gotten the updated list of projects and forks from this quarter.

I think this question is not getting at the thing we want to get at. I think the topic labels they use are outdated (Gonzalez et al paper they cite was published in 2020). I don't believe it's the case that everyone peaked in 2017.

Files
New Prediction
mollygh
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (+0%)
Less than 200 billion
5% (-17%)
More than or equal to 200 billion but less than 300 billion
95% (+20%)
More than or equal to 300 billion but less than 400 billion
0% (-2%)
More than or equal to 400 billion but less than 500 billion
0% (-1%)
More than or equal to 500 billion
Why do you think you're right?

This is 295.8 billion for January-November. I had guessed that the Jan-Nov number would be down 13.8% Y/Y (at the rate it was getting worse) but it's actually down 12.0%, so I'm lowering on the second bin, i.e. I'm surer that they will cross 300 billion units this year. They made 26 billion units in November; they'll almost certainly (20:1) make more than 4.2 billion in December.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

I'm putting a lot of trust in the resolution source not updating numbers for months that they've already reported (e.g. "we made a mistake, we actually made, like, 40 billion units in March"). Usually I allow a little room for resolution weirdness but this time I'm risking it all.

Files
New Prediction
mollygh
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (+0%)
Less than 200 billion
22% (+5%)
More than or equal to 200 billion but less than 300 billion
75% (+0%)
More than or equal to 300 billion but less than 400 billion
2% (-5%)
More than or equal to 400 billion but less than 500 billion
1% (+0%)
More than or equal to 500 billion

Thanks to @RyanBeck for checking October data. YTD 2022 is down 12.3% from 2021. In September, YTD units were down 10.8%, and in June, down 6.3%. At this rate, it would be down 15.2% in the end, which would give 304.8 billion units. I'm not so sure that China will exceed 300 billion units.

Files
mollygh
made a comment:
I always leave a little room for weirdness in the resolution source (sometimes data get updated and there wind up being more or less than they previously said). But in this case I think it's a pretty safe bet.... I don't think I've seen data from previous months change from report to report. Maybe I should have given 0% to the top two bins.
Files
New Prediction

I'm only not forecasting 100% because I'm a coward.

Files
New Badge
mollygh
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username