7th
Accuracy Rank

mollygh

Molly Hickman
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-0.745

Relative Brier Score

79

Forecasts

54

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 1 4 62 79 147
Comments 1 3 32 38 71
Questions Forecasted 1 4 12 15 33
Upvotes on Comments By This User 2 4 53 54 96
 Definitions
New Prediction
mollygh
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (-5%)
Less than $5 billion
17% (+0%)
More than $5 billion but less than or equal to $6 billion
49% (+2%)
Between $6 billion and $7 billion, inclusive
22% (+3%)
Between $7 billion and $8 billion, inclusive
9% (+0%)
More than $8 billion

It's at $3.84 billion with data reported for January through July 2022. The data are a royal pain to access but I got records for recent months for HS codes 8486, 903082, 903141. There were no records for HS 854311 or 901041. It's possible I exceeded some limit but it seems like there just haven't been those exports yet this year, or else they haven't been reported (yet).

The data I pulled are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DUrheqFuEHPKpGU8oaWHYRCYzgR07uNW7rc5pTPLc8E/edit?usp=sharing

New Comment

Noting that what repositories qualify as AI projects changes over time. This from the caption on the data page: "Caution is advised when comparing different versions of the data, as the AI-related concepts identified by the machine learning algorithm may evolve in time." They're chosen based on a machine learning algorithm:

OECD.AI partners with GitHub to identify public AI projects – or “repositories” – following the methodology developed by Gonzalez et al. (2020). Using the 439 topic labels identified by Gonzalez et al. – as well as the topics “machine learning”, “deep learning”, and “artificial intelligence” – GitHub provides OECD.AI with a list of public projects containing AI code. GitHub updates the list of public AI projects on a quarterly basis, which allows OECD.AI to capture trends in AI software development over time. [1]

I'm not sure but this makes it sound like the whole time series changes quarterly when they refresh/decide anew what "concepts" qualify as AI?

I might quit this question..... May look at Gonzalez et al paper first, which OECD doesn't properly cite, but which I think it's safe to assume is this: DOI:10.1145/3379597.3387473 from MSR '20: 17th International Conference on Mining Software Repositories.

Also confusing: Looking at just the number (not percentage) of contributions (commits), I see 14.19865521 commits in 2021 for EU27?? How are there fractions of commits? What am I missing?

[1] Methodology page: https://oecd.ai/en/github

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

7:1 odds against seem about right to me. Comments by @thsavage @brian about costs of labor, administration, etc overhead being hard to reduce, probably, past a certain point.

Why might you be wrong?

I have a vague worry that the bar for "sequenced" will change, like, NIH will decide that a higher error rate is OK, or something. I don't have very little background knowledge on DNA sequencing (one computational biology class in college)... Uncertain about how rigid the definition of "sequenced" is.

I'm also cognizant that how the cost of sequencing one genome is calculated varies and I'm not sure how the NIH deals with that. On their website: "Accurately determining the cost for sequencing a given genome (e.g., a human genome) is not simple. There are many parameters to define and nuances to consider. In fact, it is difficult to cite precise genome-sequencing cost figures that mean the same thing to all people because, in reality, different researchers, research institutions, and companies typically track and account for such costs in different fashions." [1, emphasis added] Also, like @Liflock says, maybe they'll start considering more than just NHGRI-funded sequencing centers.

[1] https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost

New Prediction
mollygh
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (-3%)
Less than 200 billion
8% (+2%)
More than or equal to 200 billion but less than 300 billion
53% (+31%)
More than or equal to 300 billion but less than 400 billion
29% (-23%)
More than or equal to 400 billion but less than 500 billion
9% (-7%)
More than or equal to 500 billion

Latest data available is June: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202207/t20220718_1886643.html

Jan-Jun 2022 has seen 166.1 billion IC units. June's production was down 10.4% from last June; YTD, down 6.3%.

In 2021 they made 359.4 billion units. 359.4*(1-0.063) ~ 336.8 for 2022.

You guys are sleeping on the third bin, I think (crowd is at 27%; Pros, 29%).

New Badge
mollygh
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Lowering on the basis of great rationale from @michal_dubrawski (see especially his Squiggle breakdown): https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/51099

I'm less sure than Michal that Xi has enough support to become "Chairman" and a little more sure that he would take on that title now if he could. My P(Xi Becoming Chairman Now) is ~0.25, after a little reading (see Michal's sources). I'm giving 3% to Xi dying or relinquishing power + unknowns.

New Badge
mollygh
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
mollygh
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
21% (+0%)
Less than 10
36% (+0%)
More than or equal to 10 but less than 15
30% (+0%)
More than or equal to 15 but less than 20
13% (+0%)
More than or equal to 20
Confirmed previous forecast
New Prediction
mollygh
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 74
0%
Between 75 and 99, inclusive
100%
More than or equal to 100

It's at 105 now. Will this resolve retroactively (i.e. forecasts made on or after the day it surpassed 100 won't count)?

New Prediction

7% for unknown unknowns and possible name change. See @Trevor comment: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/45948

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username