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Relative Brier Score
29
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 29 | 191 | 29 | 191 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 24 | 59 | 28 | 59 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(+23%)
Less than 5
38%
(-14%)
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
7%
(-9%)
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 18
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-55%)
Yes
The junta has extended the state of emergency by six months, which means that there probably won't be elections this year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
Updating based on time. There would have to be a serious escalation for there to be over 500 deaths by the end of July. Israel's current leadership is more aggressive towards Iran though, so that could change the course.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+0%)
Yes
I believe my original forecast was too high, but in light of the latest news about Israel's national security minister visiting Jerusalem's Holy Esplanade and thereby violating the Status Quo, a 5% probability for over 1,000 fatalities seems justified.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Peace in Tigray will probably hold for a while at least, driving fatalities down. However, the growing conflict in Oromia is worrying.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
82%
(+7%)
Less than 20%
17%
(-4%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
1%
(-3%)
More than or equal to 24%
Updating based on time
Files
I'm not bullish about the biofuel industry. There hasn't been new companies joining the collaboration lately, so I don't think that's very probable in the coming month either.