sanyer

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Relative Brier Score

29

Forecasts

3

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 11 29 191 29 191
Comments 0 0 15 0 15
Questions Forecasted 11 24 59 28 59
Upvotes on Comments By This User 2 3 13 3 13
 Definitions
New Prediction
sanyer
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4%
Less than or equal to 3
66%
4
21%
5
6%
6
3%
More than or equal to 7
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belikewater
made a comment:
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New Prediction
sanyer
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
55% (+23%)
Less than 5
38% (-14%)
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
7% (-9%)
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
0% (+0%)
More than or equal to 18

Following crowd

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sanyer
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
sanyer
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
20% (-55%)
Yes

The junta has extended the state of emergency by six months, which means that there probably won't be elections this year. 

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction

Updating based on time. There would have to be a serious escalation for there to be over 500 deaths by the end of July. Israel's current leadership is more aggressive towards Iran though, so that could change the course.

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New Prediction

I believe my original forecast was too high, but in light of the latest news about Israel's national security minister visiting Jerusalem's Holy Esplanade and thereby violating the Status Quo, a 5% probability for over 1,000 fatalities seems justified.

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New Prediction

Confirmed previous forecast

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New Prediction

Peace in Tigray will probably hold for a while at least, driving fatalities down. However, the growing conflict in Oromia is worrying.

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New Prediction
sanyer
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
82% (+7%)
Less than 20%
17% (-4%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
1% (-3%)
More than or equal to 24%

Updating based on time

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