40th
Accuracy Rank

sanyer

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-0.016288

Relative Brier Score

128

Forecasts

44

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 10 29 341 128 664
Comments 0 1 37 18 59
Questions Forecasted 10 27 76 40 115
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 4 81 44 120
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
sanyer
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
16% (-2%)
Yes
May 23, 2024 to May 23, 2025
84% (+2%)
No
May 23, 2024 to May 23, 2025

Going back down, as I expected higher escalation last month

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New Prediction
sanyer
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11% (-2%)
Yes
May 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2024
89% (+2%)
No
May 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2024

Going back down, as I expected higher escalation last month

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New Prediction
sanyer
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (-5%)
Yes
May 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2024
96% (+5%)
No
May 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2024

Going back to my original forecast

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New Prediction

Passage of time

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New Prediction
sanyer
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (-3%)
Yes
96% (+3%)
No

Reducing further due to the junta controlling less than 50% of the territory, as pointed out by @DKC , as well as another factor I explain below. Everything points towards the country remaining a chaos for a while now.

I found this interesting visualization tool of the situation in Myanmar: https://myanmar.iiss.org/. They publish monthly conflict updates on the recent developments of the war. Things to learn from the latest one:

  • The junta has started to arm the Rohingya in the Western part of the country, as they are opposed to the Arakan Army, one of the rebel groups.
  • This is a strong sign of just how weakened junta has become, as they tried to violently expel Rohingyas just 7 years ago. 
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New Prediction

Reducing slightly based on passage of time. However, I previously over-updated so I'm not making a significant update here.


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New Prediction
sanyer
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
17% (-3%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
11% (+4%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan

Updating a bit upwards for Georgia due to recent big protests, which could lead to escalation. I also based my previous probability on an observation of stable relationship between Georgia and Russia. While this might be true for the governments, the Georgian people certainly don't seem to accept the Russian influence.

On the other hand, I'm updating downfards for Moldova due to a) following the crowd and b) higher chance of invading Georgia eats from the probability of invading Moldova, as I believe Russia will probably not have the resources to invade both in this time period. I'm still quite high though, as there could be many ways which would trigger this resolving positively.

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New Badge
sanyer
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

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