I'll use @ctsats 's base rate of 73% for now, although I know it's problematic. I'll need to think about the base rate more later.
Knowing that there were much more observations in early 2010s due to Kepler telescope, I'm updating my forecast down, maybe to 65%. James Webb hasn't been finding many exoplanets.
I also believe the way the question is constructed, some habitable worlds found in 2024 are likely to not count for this question. The clarification states that the question will be resolved on or after 31 January 2025, without specifying the date. Since some of the previous findings have taken several months to be added to the list, some of the findings in late 2024 are likely to be missed when the question is resolved.
So I'm moving down to 60%.
The crowd seems to be at 79%, so I'll move up a bit, back to 65%.
Co-forecasted with @Benjamin-Sturgeon , it was fun!
Going to move further down bases on Israel's latest attack to Iran. The attack was very small and it seems very inlikely now that escalation would happen.