This will need to be a multi answer can be correct question type.
0.023573
Relative Brier Score
18
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 33 | 18 | 221 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 97 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 24 | 16 | 108 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 60 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Comment
New Question Suggested
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
Yes
Jun 28, 2024 to Jun 28, 2025
92%
No
Jun 28, 2024 to Jun 28, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Khamenei still holds significant power across all branches of government, so it's unlikely he flees or is ousted due to domestic turmoil. I'm forecasting a very small chance this happens for two reasons: 1) His successor is named while he's still living, though that's a complex process and no clear front-runner. 2) Death given his age and health issues reported in 2022, though he's been seen out more publicly in the last year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Death, successor is named, domestic turmoil arising from Presidential election
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-11%)
Yes
97%
(+11%)
No
Lowering my forecast due to time and also the status quo is likely to continue as Iran deals with finding a new president.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-7%)
Yes
Updating my forecast due to time
Files
Why do you think you're right?
He's maintained a strong hold on the presidency that is likely to last beyond 2025 despite challenges against him (repercussions from war in Ukraine, the Wagner Group uprising, death of Nevalny, etc).
Why might you be wrong?
Health issues or domestic turmoil