vpsays

Vanessa
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-0.000045

Relative Brier Score

10

Forecasts

3

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 2 3 31 10 213
Comments 0 0 8 1 94
Questions Forecasted 2 3 19 9 103
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 7 3 59
 Definitions
New Prediction
vpsays
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
95%
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
Low likelihood but I’m forecasting slightly above the crowd due to escalating events bw Iran and Israel in Syria and a possibly looming Iran retaliation, which would draw in the U.S.
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New Prediction
vpsays
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
91%
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
Unlikely to happen within Israel but not zero percent. Events have escalated since Israel’s attack in Syria against Iran, which the U.S. has said will lead to retaliation by Iran. It’s more likely Iran retaliates with a similar approach in neighboring areas, rather than inside Israel.
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New Prediction
Not happening in next few days
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New Prediction

Unlikely due to time.

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Questions Forecasted

For forecasting in 100 questions!
New Prediction
Possible, though low chance. If this happens, I think logistics of moving will take longer than a year. And they wouldn’t announce this until the last stages.
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New Prediction
Only a few days left
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New Prediction
Starting off w/ a 60% likelihood given there are still 9 months to go. Previous conflicts/wars between Israel and Hamas have lasted about one year. 
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