Forecasted Questions
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2023 05:45AM UTC
(8 months ago)
Aug 29, 2023 05:45AM UTC
(8 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 2% | +8% | +0% |
No | 90% | 98% | -8% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2023 03:36PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Aug 31, 2023 03:36PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 4% | +6% | -8% |
No | 90% | 96% | -6% | +8% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 06, 2024 10:05AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 06, 2024 10:05AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
Qatar | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 15% | 5% | +10% | -1% |
Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 03:34AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 03:34AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 16% | 5% | +11% | +0% |
No | 84% | 95% | -11% | +0% |