Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 22, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 22, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 4% | +6% | -2% |
No | 90% | 96% | -6% | +2% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 day from now)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 day from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 22, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 22, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | 1% | +2% | -3% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 22, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 22, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 8% | 4% | +4% | -1% |
No | 92% | 96% | -4% | +1% |