RyanBeck

Ryan Beck

About:

I'm the Forecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus. Formerly a bridge engineer and I've also written some sci-fi.

GJOpen Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/87827

Metaculus Profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117502/

"... the strength of opinion in each individual, and its practical influence on his conduct, depend much on the number which he supposes to have entertained the same opinion. The reason of man, like man himself, is timid and cautious when left alone and acquires firmness and confidence in proportion to the number with which it is associated." -Federalist No. 49

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Forecasted Questions

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2021 11:29AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	35%	-5%	-2%

How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 12, 2021 03:32PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2021 11:26PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 2%	15%	7%	+8%	+0%
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive	35%	23%	+12%	+0%
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6%	30%	33%	-3%	+0%
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8%	15%	21%	-6%	+0%
More than 8%	5%	16%	-11%	+0%

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2021 12:07PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 26, 2021 11:53AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than -0.25	10%	14%	-4%	+0%
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive	30%	31%	-1%	+0%
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25	40%	33%	+7%	+1%
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5	15%	17%	-2%	+0%
More than 0.5	5%	4%	+1%	+0%

How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2021 06:21PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 03, 2022 04:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 20, 2022 02:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Apple	35%	48%	-13%	+11%
Microsoft	25%	22%	+3%	+3%
Alphabet (Google)	9%	13%	-4%	-4%
Amazon	10%	10%	+0%	-5%
Tesla	15%	3%	+12%	-2%
Meta (Facebook)	5%	1%	+4%	-2%
Other	1%	2%	-1%	-1%

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 04, 2022 07:36PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 16, 2022 01:46AM UTC
(2 years ago)